Steemit Daily Stats (Sunday, June 16th, 2017)
Price
Posts
Daily Payouts (USD)
Macro Events
Fundamentals at STEEM/it remain consistent. All things equal, there is no reason to be worried about the progression or general interest of Steemit for the long term.
Every hype cycle in a market has a euphoria stage as well as the capitulation stage. Human emotion drives the market movements when fundamentals remain the same.
Every market including STEEM has gone through a some what bubble phase in the last few months, market makers who front run the markets are now taking profit and it is those who came late in the game looking to make a quick buck suffering. Over the next few months as the excitement winds down, those who came to Steemit seeing stellar rewards in hopes of hitting the jackpot will eventually leave.
Only those who commit to the long term will remain, but that will be a fraction of the dwindling active users and the worst is yet to come.
Crypto markets will need to reach capitulation stage before a resumption of the bullish trend. This means blood on the streets.
The most important factor to consider is the up coming August 1st UASF / Segwit2x signalling day. Malicious actors such as Bitmain seek to hard fork bitcoin to Segwit2x to keep their competitive advantage through ASICBOOST as well as take over the development direction of Bitcoin.
True anarchal capitalists will question the validity of Bitcoin remaining a decentralised currency if a group of companies from industry come together and successfully fork Bitcoin.
Technicals
STEEM
As predicted, the STEEM price has continued to stay within the the symmetrical triangle marked, and will continue to consolidate between the range of 45,000 sats and 50,000 sats.
Price in terms of USD will continue to drop as Bitcoin seeks to find it's own price floor.
Several wicks on the DAILY has shown the price is reluctant to go much below the previous monthly pivot of 45,000 sats. This looks to be the price floor which should hold as the price compresses in consolidation.
Expect to see at most one more day of red before we see some green on the daily.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has fallen through the symmetrical "shockwave" triangle pattern and has tested fresh lows below 2000.
The next real support comes in at the last high which is a gross 700 dollars below the current price at 1300 usd.
Should we fall below 1800 and close below it on the daily, then Bitcoin price is without a doubt headed towards that figure. A scary but necessary evil if we wish to see healthy growth and a resumption of the bullish trend.
On the other hand, should UASF succeed in signalling for Segwit, then the outlook of Bitcoin looks to be very positive. Who doesn't want to have lightning networks and faster transaction times?
We must look to close above the previous monthly pivot of 2100 in the next day to build confidence this is the price floor. If not, then we are almost certainly looking at 1800 usd as our next target, and shortly after that, 1300.
Capitulation is not a pretty sight, but it presents a perfect buying opportunity for the long term investor.
Fundamentals of Bitcoin are about to change, and during this time, it is almost certain that we will experience a return to volatility over the possible black swan event.
Staying in fiat is the best course of action, or if you wish to hold Bitcoin, you can hedge against the volatility and lock in your fiat value of Bitcoin by holding short futures contracts. This is a price neutral carry that will protect against further fiat value losses in your crypto portfolio.
As always be mindful of the Bitcoin price. STEEM/USD is a synthetic pair with no active markets. This is why all of my analysis is conducted with respect to STEEM/BTC. A sharp fall in BTC price will mean a sharper fall in STEEM price in terms of USD.
Steem daily forecast is updated daily. Format is yet to be set in stone. Please upvote follow and resteem
~Bateman