I want to invest $20K more into STEEM, and then power up. I want the long-term price of STEEM to go to $10 and well beyond. Maybe $20. Maybe higher. Who knows how high the limit could be if steemit becomes the "go to" social media platform for the masses?
BUT .....
With the current curation/trending issues, I'm having trouble convincing myself that the platform is really at the start of a sustainable exponential expansion for the user base.
Another possibility is the platform is at the start of a cycle where new users grow exponentially every month, these new users get at most 30 days under their belt, and then 95% of the new users pack it in, abandon their account, and never come back. That is not a path for STEEM going to $10. That is a path for STEEM going to $0.10.
My specific concerns are current curation/trending issues and the part that some whales are playing in the obvious distortions.
Let's look at the recent view of trending topics.
Two posts by Dan and one about Dan. Obviously they attracted a lot of upvotes as folks chased curation rewards knowing all posts by and about Dan would float to the top in trending. Lots of code segments to read through. Genius content I'm sure. But definitely counts as "inside baseball" type of material. Will 5 million future steemit users be interested in code segments?
Two posts by Miss Delicious. At least the tenth post on the Bahamas trip, maybe the 15th post on that trip? Folks chasing curation rewards since the Delicious posts have been golden delicious in the last few weeks. They always float to the top of trending. Will 5 million future steemit users be interested in this much detail from one vacation?
One post with short update by DollarVigilante on how the meeting with RichDadPoorDad was not a love fest. Big "debate" on the difference between anarcho-capitalist and capitalist. Definitely counts as "inside baseball" type of material. DV always does well on trending, so could also be folks chasing curation rewards. Will 5 million future steemit users be interested in whether DV and RichDad reconciled and made up?
Couple posts at lower end of trending page on G20 summit and a tall observation tower.
Final post that got cut off on my screen capture. A short one paragraph update about the Vacation Rental Industry. These show up at the rate of approximately once per day. Always seem to end up in trending. These posts are always upvoted by Hendrikdegrote who is #14 on the whale list, according to steemwhales. The hendrikdegrote upvote is always first on the on the upvote list. Conclusion is Hendrik has purchased $2.5million worth of influence on steemit. This is enough to ensure that the Vacation Rental Industry posts end up on trending.
Hendrik was also the first upvoter on the DollarVigilante post above. Hendrik is a frequent upvoter on DV posts. Hendrik upvotes can often take a post onto trending. But when Hendrik is busy or unavailable, we see Thejohalfiles as an upvoter that has enough "juice" to also take a post onto trending. Thejohalfiles is #19 on the whale list, with account value estimated at $1.8million.
A whale compared to you and me, but only a mini-whale when compared to Hendrik :).
If you go back and look on the trending page, you find a large percentage of cases where posts get onto trending based on an upvote from hendrikdegrote individually or from thejohalfiles individually. But sometimes these whales work together to get a post onto trending. Many posts where you see the first two upvotes are from these two whales. Maybe one person and two different whale suits, to be able to get so many upvotes to cluster so closely? Maybe Mr. and Mrs. whale? Who knows?
So am I complaining that these two whales have bought $2.5M and $1.8M of influence and are using the influence to get posts onto trending.
No. That isn't the complaint.
Au contraire. It might actually be positive for STEEM price in the long-run if advertisers learned of the steemit platform, learned they could spend advertising dollars to get SP and upvote posts they control of prefer onto a trending page. That might turn out to be the ultimate monetization path that takes STEEM to $100. Maybe these two whales are the front end of this monetization wave that will sweep over steemit? Who knows.
My problem is the way that the trending page is currently constructed is not remotely helpful in trying to keep new users engaged on the platform through their first 30 days. Which is required to keep them on the platform for their first 60 days, and then their first 90 days, and etc.
The trending page as currently constructed provides the exact opposite result.
I think of the trending page as the "whale lottery" page. You can get onto the trending page if hendrik or thejohalfiles decide they want you on the trending page. And then everyone is going to chase those posts under the assumption they could be in line for big curation payouts, once the post makes it to trending.
How is that helpful in keeping new users engaged once they join the platform?
Ultimately I am having trouble pulling the trigger on putting $20K into steemit not because of the whale structure, that allows investors with big wallets to purchase influence. That is a good thing. That could ultimately drive the price of STEEM to the moon.
BUT, only if we have smart whales. And over the last couple of weeks the voting patterns of a couple of our whales look to be the opposite of smart. The voting patterns are generating a trending page that, in my opinion, will be certain to turn-off new users, as opposed to making new users want to stay on the platform.
Which leads to my recommendation for HF20. There should be someway for every user to customize what shows up on their own personalized trending page. I only want to look at trending posts that are of interest to me. And I assume other users would have the same opinion.
Keep the current trending algorithms and page presentation if you want. Change the name of that page to the "whale lottery page". And then let me define my own trending page that will be of interest me.
I'll put hockey on my trending page. We will eventually get some good hockey content on steemit. And I'll be hooked.
Rant off.
I am interested in your thoughts and comments on the rant above.
Please upvote and resteem if this post made you stop and think for a couple of seconds.
STEEM On!!
Dave