We all know the FOMO feeling. Everybody needs to buy that token, being it Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash or Monero, and they need to buy it now, no matter what. They just have to.
I know you've been there, more than once.
But before that stage, which has to do more with mass hypnosis than with sound economical principles, there is another one. A silent stage, in which the price of an asset is mostly flat, but in which all the indicators are slowly lining up for the big explosion. A stage which in many ways resembles the famous silence before the storm.
I witnessed such a time here, on Steemit, a year ago. Let me tell you how it was and why I think we're in a similar stage now.
Let's Have A Look At The Numbers, First
If you follow me here for more than a few weeks, you must remember a similar post, in terms of numbers. I already wrote before that STEEM appreciated a lot during the last 365 days. But bear with me, because this article would be a bit different than just plain numbers.
- Steem rose in fiat from $0.24 to $.2.85, which means a 11x increase.
- In BTC, it rose from 20,449 satoshis to 35,816 satoshis, which means a 57% appreciation.
- Trading volume grew from $3 million to $21.5 million, a sevenfold increase.
- And, finally, market cap grew from $58 million to $725 million, 12.5 times.
All in all, these are spectacular numbers.
But keep in mind that this time last year we had:
- a management conflict which eventually ended amicably
- a smaller user base
- a different reward curve (squared rewards, versus linear rewards, starting with HF 19)
- a different voting mechanism (not expiring in 2 days, as it was starting HF 19)
So, once HF 19 went in effect, roughly 11 months ago, the bull run started.
What we have now?
- SMT ready to be tested
- AppBase in testing (improving scalability)
- we're just before HF 20 (which will validate AppBase)
- a user base probably 5-6 times bigger than last year
So, once HF 20 (of which I don't know any release date yet) will kick in, we may expect the same bull run.
On top of that, here's how the 3 days chart price for the last year looks for STEEM.
Technical analysis is not working well for crypto, I know, but I thought it's worth putting this indicator as well in the basket.
Like I said, I kinda feel we're at the exact same spot where we were last year, and all the above indicators are slowly lining up for a potential breakout. I may be, of course, very, very wrong, so that's why I will kindly ask you to read until the end of this article.
Now, let's see what we can expect, if there will be another bull run. I made 3 scenarios: one in which we keep the same velocity, one in which we will have only half of the growth experienced last year and one in which we will have only a tenth of that growth.
Scenario One - Same Growth Factor
If the potential bull run will generate the same relative growth, we will have:
- fiat appreciation: 11x -> $2.85 to $31.35
- appreciation in Bitcoin: 57% -> 35,816 to 56,231 satoshis
- daily trading volume sevenfold increase -> $21.5 million to $150 million
- market cap growth 12.5 times -> $725 million to $9 billion
Scenarion Two - Halving The Growth
If all the above numbers will be halved:
- fiat appreciation: 5.5x -> $2.85 to $15.675
- appreciation in Bitcoin: 28.5% -> 35,816 to 46,023 satoshis
- daily trading volume increase 3.5 times -> $21.5 million to $75.25 million
- market cap growth 6.25 times -> $725 million to $4.5 billion
Scenario Three - Growing Just A Tenth Of Last Year Growth
And finally, if we were to experience only a tenth of the last year growth:
- fiat appreciation: 1.1x -> $2.85 to $3.135
- appreciation in Bitcoin: 5.7% -> 35,816 to 37,8573 satoshis
- daily trading volume increase 0.7 times -> $21.5 million to $36.55 million
- market cap growth 1.25 times -> $725 million to $906 million
Will This Happen For Sure?
I really, really have no idea. I'm just putting together some pieces of information, and I'm obviously and blatantly biased, so I'm arranging it in such a way that it will fulfill my expectations.
Fact is, anything can happen.
Bitcoin can really burst and drag down with it all the altcoins. Regulators may step in violently. More countries may ban cryptos entirely.
And even if the overall context will be favorable, we may expect hardforks, community splits, new competitors and so on and so forth. It happened even in the Bitcoin community and it will happen, sooner or later, in the Steemit community as well. Each of these factors can affect the price evolution adversely.
Really, anything can happen.
So, please, pretty please, with sugar on top, do me a favor and expect the worst, but still prepare for the best.
You just never know.
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me 
Wanna know when you're getting paid?
|
|
I know the feeling. That's why I created steem.supply, an easy to use and accurate tool for calculating your Steemit rewards |