Bank indonesia (BI) predicts the rupiah potentially weakened to the level of Rp 15,000 per US dollar (US).
"As long as this BI can maintain the stability of the rupiah still reflects our economic fundamentals and so far in the range as now Rp 13,750," he said when met at the Ministry of Finance building, Tuesday (13/3/2018).
On the other hand, BI sees that in 2018 especially since February to March there was pressure on the rupiah. That is, the impact of external sentiments such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
"The FOMC meeting gives the impression that the US economy is in the process of recovery and there is a chance the Fed rate is raised more than three times," he added.
Second, the effect of President Donald Trump's policy of issuing rules related to import duty for steel and aluminum. Both of these gave a positive sentiment for the dollar thus pressuring the currency from other countries.
For that, BI predicts year to date (Ytd) rupiah will depreciate about 1.5 percent and the strengthening dollar will not run long.
Economic observer Indef Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara responded, in the last two months the rupiah exchange rate is experiencing shocks are quite great.
From the beginning, the rupiah was at Rp 13,300 per dollar level in early January, then continued to depreciate to Rp 13,800 per dollar at the beginning of March 2018.
"Various analysts participate in the guessing game of the rupiah exchange rate. Most recently, the international rating agency Standard and Poors (S & P) issued a release that the rupiah is potentially weakening to 15,000 per dollar, "he said.
According to him, S & P forecasts are usually very moderate. That is, the rupiah could fall further than Rp 15,000, possibly in the range of Rp 16,000 to Rp 16,500 per dollar in 2018-2019.
This decline in exchange rates is often linked to global pressures, namely the rise in US Federal Reserve interest rate alias Fed rate.
While on the other side there is pressure from commodity prices especially crude oil, CPO, and coal. The three most important commodities of this world tend to rise trend.
"In fact, the price of crude oil is predicted to penetrate 80 US dollars per barrel in the second half of the year, from the current price in the range of 63-65 US dollars per barrel," he added.
As a major exporter of commodities such as coal and CPO, global commodity prices affect the stability of the national economy.