A few days ago I made a post saying the week long decline was ended and we would likely go into a trading range with a ceiling of .004 that would be hard to get past.
After the initial gains, when the price fell almost back to the recent lows, it looked like a silly prediction. Then just a couple hours ago, someone bought 300 BTC on poloniex, instantly spiking the price 40%. This looks to be an impatient buyer who bought his entire amount in one shot as following that the price is back down to .0027.
What does this mean?
When anything is in a prolonged downtrend, it creates a lot of resistance to going up, simply by people who set orders to get out at breakeven, or small loss, or simply want to move onto trading something else. What that does is make things really difficult for the price to go up any significant amount. The only way is if a big buy comes in and clear the orderbook before the market can adjust and adjust the prices.
300BTC, thats over $150,000 USD and it is not any casual amount. The fact it was so impatient (in at best a sideways market) indicates there is some time sensitive event coming up. Or this BTC whale has so many BTC that 300 is like $300
Now we have two things that both indicate the downtrend is coming to an end, if it hasnt already. I know a 50% gain from here seems like a long ways to go, but really it just takes one whale to buy 200 BTC in one shot. Another way to look at it is that with 400+ BTC of volumes per day, it is one day of buys exceeding sells 2:1.
Remember trading short term is very risky and everything I write about is without any certainity, just my observations. Also, it usually takes three times to really confirm things, though that 300 BTC buy could well count as 2 events and sure makes the chart change from a pure downtrend.