I've been a real-estate investor for the last 10 years and I've made many right and wrong decisions regarding my investments over that period. I was hit hard in 2008 because I was more using my internal (uneducated) gut feeling towards my investment decisions, rather than taking a more educated, market-research driven and numbers approach. I lost a lot on that market crash but hey, learning is not free. Those mistakes gave me a wake up call and altered my investment approach, not only in real estate, but in all my other investments too.
By studying the price movements of real-estate both locally and internationally, and by understanding the real estate economic cycles within the broader business cycles, together with looking at the urbanization rates in different countries and the demographic trends and geopolitical cycles, I expect certain future movements in real estate prices. those movement expectations are not blind guesses looking into some fancy crystal balls. They are statistical expectations based on numbers, calculations and the previously mentioned trends and indicators.
During the previous economic crisis in 2008, the residential real-estate prices internationally went down an average of 34% while the commercial real-estate prices went down an average of 43%.
It's expected by the mid of 2018 (or according to some real-estate price analysts as early as the second quarter of 2018, and throughout the coming five years, that the real-estate prices internationally (both residential and commercial) to fall an average of 56% to 67% from the 2007 peak prices.
The real-estate market is on an falling trend opposite of that of the cryptocurrency market. And this real-estate fall in prices actually makes sense to me because of the following reason: More investors (individuals and institutional) are taking their money off the real estate and precious metal markets and putting that money in the cryptocurrency market, which explains the increasing market cap of cryptocurrencies (currently estimated at 600 Billion US dollars).
So, I recommend that you don't buy any real estate now and wait for this expected fall in prices where it's likely to be a buyer bear market with abundant buying opportunities with minimum market prices. Actually, the real-estate market has been bearish for the last two years with the curve getting steeper towards down over the last six months.
Remember, savvy investors buy low and hold (or sell high for capital gains, but they turn those capital gains immediately to new buying investments).
Picture 1 Source: https://www.marketmechina.com/what-are-chinese-real-estate-buyers-investing-in-abroad/
Picture 2 Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/top-5-states-for-depreciating-home-values/
Picture 3 Source: https://polarbearscience.com/tag/crystal-ball/
Picture 4 Source: https://marijankoturic.com/mississauga-peel-region-real-estate-market-analysis-charts/
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