I joined Steemit when there were only 20,000 something registered accounts. Since then, I've witnessed the continuing momentum the Steemit platform has been building, at a furious pace. Back then, the community as a whole was operating on quite a simplistic level.
我加入Steemit时只有2万注册用户，当时整个平台的运作相当简单。从那个时候到现在，我亲眼目睹了Steemit快速持续的发展。
"You upvote me, I upvote you, we all upvote Dan and Ned."
你投票给我，我也投票给你，我们一起投票给Dan 和Ned
But it only took the first mega-post (the make-up tutorial) for the cracks in the community to slowly emerge. Jealousy and envy started to display itself all over the comments section. From then on, as the number of new users maintained its sharp ascent, the Steemit ecosystem changed with it and so the new groups started forming. This made me wonder? What could the Steemit community as a whole be like in the next 2-3 years given the tremendous rate of growth?
Even as of right now, there are almost 70,000 users. To put that in perspective, that's like comparing a sold out music concert venue to the entire population of the planet. Safe to say, there's plenty of room to grow. Assuming the variables remain similar to what they are now, here is my personal take on what a future vision of Steemit could be like.
但在第一个大帖 “the make-up tutorial”获得大量投票以后，裂缝在这个平台上慢慢出现了。许多嫉妒讽刺言论开始出现在文章的评点部分。新的用户数量持续快速上升，Steemit生态系统有了转变而新的群体开始形成。 这让我沉思，在如此快的增长速度下，Steemit这个媒体社交平台在两到三年以后会变成什么样子？ Steemit到目前为止有几乎7万用户。从数字的角度来说，就像是拿卖光门票的音乐会与全世界人口来比较。所以可以肯定的是，Steemit有绝对足够的成长空间。 假设大环境保持不变（或相似），以下是我对未来Steemit的一个预测。
The Segregation 分裂
"The minnows of today will be the dolphins of tomorrow..."
“今天的小鱼将是明天的海豚…”
In a few years, Steemit should be well in excess of 1 million users. Many minnows who joined early have powered or blogged their way up to having substantial amounts of steempower and therefore considerably more influence on the platform than before.
Alliances were made over this period of growth to where huge clusters of these pre-minnows grouped together to form powerful Steemit cartels. They will upvote each other and in essence, use their voting power to give it's members huge payouts. It will not be about the quality or relevance of the posts anymore but more about who you know and the relationships that were forged.
The Whales and Dolphins of present day will of course be even more powerful and considered the "mega-titans" of the Steemit ecosystem, however because of the formation of the Steemit cartels over time and the sheer volume of each group, Whales will not carry as much influence or power as they do currently. This may have the knock on effect of actually having the Whales play a much less hands-on role in terms of blogging and concentrate more on managing the rules and running of the platform, in addition to powering down every now and again to regulate the flow of Steem in the economy.
However, we will have more Whales than we do now, each with their own agenda, so the differing political views of these "mega-titans" will causes clashes of opinion and result in a few groups of powerful Whales uniting for their own personal cause. The Steemit cartels who, as I mentioned, already carry enormous influential power, will choose to join the Whales that have similar vested interests to their own, leading to gigantic political Steemit factions existing in the community.
在短短几年内，Steemit应该有超过100万用户。许多小鱼由于早加入，已经通过发帖或入股而拥有大量的steempower，因此在平台上具有相对大的影响力。在这期间，早期的小鱼们通过组群结成联盟，形成了强大的队伍。他们互相投票给对方，使用投票权给集团成员带来丰厚的收入。这种投票完全是依靠关系网，与帖子质量无关。
当然，鲸鱼和海豚也将更加强大，在Steemit生态系统里成为"超级巨头"。但由于小鱼集团随着时间的推延在数量上占优势，鲸鱼将不再拥有目前的影响力。这可能减弱了鲸鱼在博客方面的影响力，从而令他们更专注于管理平台的规则和运行。他们偶尔也会下投帖子来维护和调节Steemit这个经济体系的顺利营运。
然而，我们将有比现在更多的鲸鱼，而且每个都有自己的计划。而这些"超级巨头"会由于意见不一导致鲸鱼之间的分组。如上所说，小鱼集团此时也拥有了极大的影响力，他们会选择投向有类似利益的鲸鱼，形成Steemit社区里的更大的群体派别。
The Power of Voting 投票权利
"Thinking Isn't Agreeing or Disagreeing… Thats Voting"
“思考并不是同意或不同意…投票才是”
By this point in the future, unless some drastic change is made to the voting system, anyone looking to sign up will be in for a rough ride. Steemit will already be a structured, established entity unto itself, so getting any noticeability will be an uphill struggle. Again, for anyone joining, it will be a case of "who you know" to help you up that ladder as quickly as possible or of course the buying of Steem itself, which will hold a great deal more value than it is worth presently.
Bloggers themselves will have much more power than at present. I believe the "reputation" based system we have now will have been evolved to the point of it being almost as important as steempower itself. Reputation not being a transferrable commodity, it may be very likely that these community members offer specialised services, giving newbies the much needed exposure they require to get a good start, such as advertising new posts or creating hyperlinks from their own blog. However, because of the time it took to build up their profitable standing in the community, they may take a percentage of the Steem earned through their reputation influence service from the minnows account. Still, possibly a win-win for both sides involved considering the amount of users and content existing at that time.
不久的将来，在现有的投票系统没有巨大改变的前提下，想要注册加入这个平台的新成员将不会一帆风顺。Steemit已有完善的结构和系统，新人想要脱引而出是相当具有挑战性的。新成员要通过关系网才能在这个社团快速往上爬，或是以（比现在）更高的价格购买Steem股票来获取更大的影响力。
博客本身将有比现在更多的权力。我相信目前以“信誉”为基础的系统，将发展成与steempower同等重要。信誉不是能转让的，而在社区里建立自己的地位并获取收入，需要一段时间。所以社区老成员有可能为新人提供专门服务给予他们所需的曝光机会，例如为新帖做宣传或在自己帖子里加入链接，并从新成员发帖收入的Steem里扣除一部分。不过，以估计增加的用户和帖子数量来看，这是个双赢局面。
The Third Party Side Effect 第三方影响
"We must learn to walk before we can run"
“我们必须学会走了以后才能跑”
Given that the amount of generated Steem at this point will have vastly increased, this will lead to individuals earning Steem from methods other than only voting. By now, if all goes to plan, the Steemit logo will be a recognisable and trusted brand, as well as Steem itself operating as a widely accepted form of payment, without the need to convert it into Bitcoin first. Steem will be 100% transparent.
Deals may be made with affiliate companies, possibly even as large as Amazon or Google, to sponsor development of the Steemit platform. Goods and services will be paid for directly using Steem. Celebrity posts will become a regular occurrence and be a great incentive for them to earn a secondary income. By this point though, I believe Steemit will possibly have transcended monetary value to something that's just seen as the "in" thing to be a part of. The social media tool of choice featuring IM services, online shopping facilities, etc.
在Steem的数量大大增加以后，人们除了投票以外还可通过其他渠道获得Steem。如果一切顺利的话，Steemit标志将是一个公认并值得信赖的品牌，而Steem货币本身也被接受成为广泛使用的支付方式，不再需要转换成比特币。Steem将会百分之百地简易化。
联盟公司，甚至大巨头如亚马逊或谷歌，都有可能赞助Steemit平台的发展。商品和服务将直接使用Steem来支付。明星们也会常来发表帖子，获取额外收入。在这时候，Steemit可能已经超越了货币价值，成为人们热衷的社交平台。
When All’s Said and Done 当这一切都实现了
The future of Steemit will be a rollercoaster ride, whether any of my above predictions come true or not. The above is just an example of the many possible outcomes in store for us as we move forward with this platform. We still haven't even reached the precious few near term landmarks, such as the first Steemit bank transaction or the first Steemit TV segment on a popular news network. The way things are looking, big changes are right around the corner.
One thing is for sure though. Steemit is still in it's infancy (not even out of Beta yet) and we right now are in the best position possible to becoming the dolphins of the future. The ingredients are just a little time, effort and patience and we could easily be one of the major voices of influence in the Steemit community a few years down the line.
无论我上述预言是否成真，Steemit的未来都像过山车。随着我们与这个平台携手前进，以上仅仅是众多可能性结果的其中之一。我们甚至还没有谈及短期内会取得的珍贵地标，如第一个Steemit银行交易，或在流行新闻网络的第一个Steemit电视广告。就目前发展情形，Steemit将会发生巨大变化。
可以肯定的是， Steemit仍然在它的起步阶段（甚至还没有完成测试），我们正处于成为未来海豚的最佳位置。只需要一点点的时间，精力和耐心，几年以后我们都可以成为在Steemit社区具有影响力的声音之一。
