Many of the New Years resolutions and hopes and dreams for 2018 I have read centre around Steem rising in price. Of course, most of us here are invested in this happening and work hard towards a future where we can supplement our incomes, ease our debt burdens, maybe buy a few luxuries every now and again through cryptocurrencies. You know, we hope that this will amount to improving our lives and the lives of others in some way.
It will soon be a year since I have joined and at that time, the price was around 16c for Steem. From there, it steadily crashed to 7c. Perhaps I was lucky due to my ignorance because I knew nothing about this at the time and just kept doing what I was doing which was, writing and posting.
At that point, I had so little understanding of the financial aspects of the site which was strange considering it was why I had initially joined. I started trading on Poloniex around April and sold a whole lot of Steem (in my terms) at around 16 cents and then again at 35. After all, how high can it really go? Yep. Ignorance is bliss...
I haven't sold much since but, this is not about the selling of Steem. At the spikes in April, June, Oct and more recently with SBD and Steem prices over the last month, new sign ups increased and posting behaviour changed. But why? well, the price of course attracts people in but how come the long-term users have changed their frequency of posting?
When it crashed from 3.50 (before my time) to 7 cents, people were leaving in droves. Very few stuck it through. As it climbed to a dollar, many returned with the 'Been gone, I was really busy' posts in a vain attempt to cover the fact that the only reason they have returned was the higher prices.
It went up to 2.50 at the heights in June and then there was a steady decline again to around 1 until recently. Again, the people left. But why? A few short months earlier they were eager to come back at that very price to take advantage of the 'high' prices of a dollar yet, when they returned to that same very price, they left. People have very short memories yes but it is more psychological than that.
People very quickly become accustomed to a 'certain way of life' even if those circumstances are high above average. Much of it has to do with arrogance and entitlement but that, I can leave for another time. They get used to the good times and forget the bad times exist yet, the bad times they now experience were actually perceived good times not too long ago. In this case, they treat 1 dollar Steem like 7 cent Steem.
It recently tipped over 4 dollars and also dropped back to 2.50-ish, now 3.20. At what point do people stop posting again? When SBD boomed for no apparent reason for a couple weeks, people went post crazy didn't they? Even some of the whales were doubling and tripling their posting frequencies. Personally, I was extremely happy getting 1.5 Steem per SBD but after getting 8:1, it feels 'kinda bad' now, doesn't it? It is still around 2.5:1 on the internal market. Not long ago, that was an amazing bargain!
We are so quickly spoiled by circumstance that we adapt to the new highs and shift our mentality accordingly. This is why a pay raise is not a good motivator in the workplace. In the first month it is great, but by the second, it has been eaten up by personal expansion. So, we have entered into 2018 with our hopes and dreams and raising prices but what happens if they are unrealised? What happens if SMTs fail to take off immediately or fall flat altogether? What happens if the prices drop to 1 again, or below?
For me as a writer here, I have really only been getting higher payouts on posts for the last 3 or 4 months which has helped me expand a lot but, this is not where I made the gains. For me, the gains were made in the dips as I prepared for the highs. It is basic investment philosophy isn't it, invest low, sell high. For me, work hard while others are not and build a foundation for if times get better. Nothing is certain in investing and this is not high enough for me to sell at.
For those that care, those that are wanting to really make gains from something in life, whether it is at Steemit or anywhere else, it is not the work you do in the good times that counts, it is what you do in the mud and relative shit. And at Steemit, how shitty can it really be?
It is a social site with some great people, lots of interesting things to learn, a way to get out thoughts, ideas, art, coding, photography and incentives to practice and improve at them. There are also a diverse range of experiences and potential new avenues to pick up the trails of.
The irony of it really is that people stop doing what they enjoy doing because of dips in the price which lowers the pressure on the chain and likely causes more dips. I am not sure, but perhaps this is why Steem lags behind the market a week or more. Because few buy in directly to Steem, they come back to post instead which means the payouts to pressure the currency are a week away at least. But, that might be nonsense.
From my perspective, we are still in a 'low Steem' price and I am hoping that 2018 will see significant gains as money pours into alts and smart money comes into alts that are usable and proven in case. I understand there are likely to be some dips along the way, there will be FUD and complaints, regulation threats, competition from other sources and a whole range of other factors but, I will do my best to stay consistent in mind and therefore, action.
Some of the people who have made it here are the ones who despite many leaving, stuck it out, who kept developing behind the scenes, kept investing, bought 7 cent steem, bought 20 cent, 80 cent, and 1.50 steem. Kept posting, kept engaging, kept growing and building even though times looked bleak compared to a month or two earlier. Everyone is looking to gain from the spikes but in the long-term, it is the holders who will likely make the largest overall gains as they have been patiently preparing.
We are miners at Steemit and our minds, words and actions are our rigs and GPUs doing the processing. Steem is not 'free' it is earned through the energy we pour into it. We are the power that drives it.
Perhaps, 2018 won't be the year for STEEM to rise but do you know what that means? More chances to develop it even further, more chances to invest, more chances to hold a little more. 2019 is only a year away. Only a year.
Taraz
[ a Steemit original ]