The potential of a disruptive technology can be fully understood for decades.
In recent weeks, I have had many conversations with district chain professionals. When I talked with engineers, I obviously felt their enthusiasm and belief. They even thought that this would be the technology to be devoted to their whole life. A block chain hacker told me, "it will be a contest between a decade of competition, the new technology (Qu Kuailian) and the old ones that have changed our development."
On the other hand, I also had a slightly sullen talk with many investors, who are gradually losing confidence in the block chain as the medium of return on investment. Of course, ICOs (the first token sale) is still taking place, and investors are still striving to get the best ICOs. But investors are less excited by those who are interested in financial returns rather than the technology of centralization of block chains.
I saw almost all the enthusiasm for block chain in the past in two directions. The craftsmen and hackers who explore this technology have never been enthusiastic, but financiers and investors who use this technology to gain benefits are losing their interest and entering a desperate valley. But this is wrong because it follows the wrong direction.
Over the past few years, because of the convergence of attention between two groups (hackers and investors), enthusiasm for the block chain has surged. As a disruptive technology, block chains are more effective than previous technologies.
Take the Internet for example, in 60s, people invented the early data exchange protocol and packet switching technology, and the prototype of e-mail in 70s began to appear. However, it was not until 1995 that commercial websites were approved to run on the Internet. That is to say, 30 years later, entrepreneurs and investors began to invest in / create companies based on commercial websites.
By contrast, bitcoin, which opened the prelude to the technological revolution of the modern block chain, was released by the white paper on bitcoin at the end of 2008; the first price increase took place in mid 2011, up again at the end of 2013, and the latest price peak in December 2017. This technology has only lasted 3 years from emergence to speculation hot spot, and the heat has not yet been reduced.
From the history of Internet development, we can see the difference between the two groups represented by hackers and financiers. In the early days of the Internet, hackers tried to expand the capabilities and scope of the new technology and created new products based on Internet technology for decades, and there was little sign at that time that they would be paid for it. Today, these historical work is in the open source community and will continue to promote the development of this technology. Financiers, in the early days of the Internet, mostly overlooked Internet software, and they were more keen to fund companies producing hardware infrastructure that continued to emerge in the 90s network bubble.
The development mode of Internet technology will reappear on the block chain. Hackers continue to improve and expand the capabilities of the technology and explore more possibilities; financiers are investing much earlier in block chain technology than on the same phase of the Internet, but they suddenly found that the block chain is still in a very very early stage. No wonder many people run away when there is a sign of bubbles.
When block chain technology loses its appeal to some investors, these investors complain that they have lost the market, and claims that the technology is "dead" or other similar metaphors, so that we are in despair. In some media reports, you may have realized this. I am worried that this trend will become stronger and stronger.
However, it is a huge mistake to focus on the investors rather than the hackers themselves. Investors are not the core of block chain technology, engineers are. Engineers have been using this technology and will eventually find a killer app that can drive value. This may happen this year, maybe ten years later, perhaps even longer.
The real potential of a disruptive technology may take decades to fully understand. You don't need to participate in the development process like a true believer, but you need to remain curious and focus on cutting-edge technology.
Therefore, there is no need to feel desperate at the bottom of the valley. Instead, think of it as an opportunity to eliminate all speculative activities, including the speculators themselves. This field will be returned to those who really want to build the future, not just to earn a little money. As for those who have already withdrawn, do not worry, they will come back when we need them.
