I can feel it coming. This is not meant to be trading or investment advice, but I think we need to begin to prepare for a large influx of people and perhaps money. Let's just imagine for a bit how this MIGHT end up playing out.
We've been slowly growing our user base and meanwhile infrastructure and other improvements are taking place. Hardfork 20 and the ability to grow more quickly, should be upon us soon. Some of the past year has been frustrating as a decentralized community struggled to find our way, sort out our culture and various ideas of how the platform should grow. If you think it is frustrating now, wait until we have a massive influx of people.
I think it might have been nice if we had more time to prepare and mature a bit more, but I see signs that it is coming sooner rather than later. It will be our job to set the culture, help the end users and still maintain our own growth.
Are you ready?
Let me tell you why I think it is going to happen soon. By soon I mean in the next few months, with ramping up beginning immediately.
Signs:
- The level and type of comments my blog has been getting. The improvement is night and day, we have serious minnows now. Gone are the days of broken English comments and whiny, begging new-users. This group is serious. They have accepted this isn't going to be easy and they are ready to fight for their share of Steem. I am actually receiving high quality engagement on nearly every post. The end-users are different. They are realistic, intelligent and articulate. They read, engage, ask real questions. I rarely get a bunch of spam anymore. When the new-users contact me in the comments or on Discord, it isn't "Hi Sir, you help me?" It is now thoughtful questions, and people looking to make this work. Night and day!
- The quality of the Introduce yourself posts is also improving, again this batch is different. Many are already Content Creators coming from other platforms, they understand marketing, engagement and are asking for advice (not money)
- The "Other Platforms" are having a difficult time with bad press, censorship and privacy concerns, the marketplace is overdue for new platforms.
- I am hearing and seeing Steem references everywhere including Facebook, Twitter and it seems even Crypto-Twitter is starting to take notice.
- Ned is communicating with us and also taking the show on the road
- We are getting positive media attention
- We are getting close to the next hardfork. (I don't look at Github nor have any inside information) I just feel that excitement building.
- It is already happening, but when the ball gets rolling it could get kind of wild.
- Lot's of projects are being developed and many of them are quite serious.
- We are having more price fluctuations that don't seem to be tied directly to the Crypto Global Market Cap.
What will happen next?
I don't know for sure, I have to guess also, but I imagine suddenly there will be a new batch of users pounding at the door and wondering how they can earn Steem. Many of these users will be coming from other platforms and they will have the maturity to expect this to be hard and time consuming and expensive. After all they have already built a base elsewhere. I don't know what will come first, new money or new users, but I suspect the users will come first. It doesn't matter because whichever one comes first the other will follow.
When they land they will be looking to the community to decide how to conduct themselves and what to do. Will you model hard work, persistence and optimism or envy and drama? Whichever path you choose someone will play the other role.
When the pond gets bigger so does the talent and visibility may become even harder. In my opinion it would be a good idea to set the expectations that this is hard, it is meant to be hard and there will not now or ever be any chance that all someone has to do is show up and earn.
Some current users will feel threatened by the influx of new talent and competition. They will expect to keep their current status and some will be disappointed. Others will support and celebrate successes and play a role in helping to onboard new-users. The second group will become natural leaders and mentors, the Sherpa's of the platform.
I will not go into any details, but it is pretty easy to predict who will be who.
If the money comes first, there will be a mad fight for it, lots of drama and whales and witnesses who want to ensure that "Scammers" don't get rewards, which I have come to think of as "Anyone other than those who are used to getting it". All you have to do is remember $12 SBDs to predict who will be happy to have money flow into the overall economy and who will want to control where it goes.
The bid bots will be overwhelmed and will become a tool for spending money to gain visibility and the competition will be tough and the expectations will change.
The whales and the dolphins will be unable to support the new users and people will have to build networks and communities and support and grow with each other as the numbers could be overwhelming for the current amount of stakeholders we have that are actively involved in the community. (Hint, start working on your network now!)
The influx will also bring new development teams, money and talent to our "Builders" there will be lots of competition for new platforms and enhancements. Things will be growing and changing more often. New Investors will bring teams and experience in with them. Our advantage is we know the platform and are already moving through the learning curve.
Are you feeling the FOMO yet? I am. I am also beginning to plan and decide how to handle it. I think things could get a bit messy as well as exciting. I like to imagine how it might go, so I can choose how to behave as it begins instead of reacting as things change.
Tomorrow I will talk about some strategies for handling big changes and an influx of competition.
Disclaimer: I am totally speculating and writing about my gut instincts in this post, again, I have no special inside information nor is this meant to be trading or investment advice.
Do you consider where we might be headed and what will happen next? Tell me your thoughts below.
