Headline : Why Monsoon Matters Beyond The Farm?
Details :
Why in News?
With the projected 97% monsoon it is a hope that it will fuel growth, in this context there’s a look at monsoon’s role in India’s economy.
IMD Forecast about monsoon
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), India will get a normal monsoon this year, with rainfall expected at 97% of the average, auguring well for agricultural output and brightening market sentiment.
Rainfall in the June-September season, which delivers 73% of the country’s total precipitation, is expected to be normal in the absence of the rain-busting El Niño phenomenon, which is associated with warm temperatures over parts of the Pacific Ocean.
Factors like La Nina and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which impact the southwest monsoon in India positively, are likely to be neutralised by the time the monsoon sets in.
Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5%.
The probability of normal rainfall is 42%.
There is a 30% chance of below-normal rainfall, 12% of above-normal rain and 14% of deficient rain this monsoon season.
What is the Indian monsoon?
The southwest monsoon is a summertime reversal in wind direction that provides nearly 70% of the Indian subcontinent’s annual rainfall.
Monsoon winds originate from the southern Indian Ocean.
They get deflected southwestwards towards India after crossing the equator.
These winds are driven by air pressure differences caused by the more rapid heating up of the land in summers compared to the ocean.
The land heats up the air over it, causing it to rise and create a low-pressure zone, which attracts winds from the high pressure regions over the ocean.
In south Asia, the effect is enhanced by the Tibetan plateau, which heats up more than the atmosphere would at its height.
Monsoon has a set pattern of advance and withdrawal.
It arrives in southern India in May or June, and advances northwards and westwards, reaching Pakistan by July.
It retreats from Pakistan by September, finally withdrawing from southern India by December.
The season doesn’t see a continuous deluge, but has alternate wet and dry phases, the timing and duration of which account for much of the year-to-year variation in monsoon rains.
Which are the country’s wettest and driest states?
Mawsynram, a village in Meghalayais the world’s wettest place.
Meghalaya receives the country’s highest rainfall followed by Goa and Sikkim.
The national capital on the other hand was among the driest states in 2016.
Impact of monsoon on Indian economy
The monsoon’s failure is often linked to the economy’s overall performance.
It is not the agricultural sector alone that is affected by a bad monsoon — industry too suffers as lower farm output decreases demand from this sector, which employs half the country’s workforce.
Contrasting GDP growth rates with drought years since 1951-52 reveals growth is sluggish in drought years.
In recent years this correlation has become weaker, which may be linked to the fact that agriculture’s share in GDP has also fallen.
A healthy rainfall is also crucial politically as this is the last monsoon before the 2019 general elections.
Dependence on monsoon
While agriculture’s share of gross domestic product is barely 14%, it impacts the livelihood of twothirds of the population.
Monsoon rainfall is crucial for kharif (summer-sown) crops.
Food output in the kharif season used to be much higher than Rabi, or winter-sown, output.
The kharif crop was 20% more than Rabi 15 years ago, but now the two seasons produce an equal amount of food.
This means that India’s food output now depends a bit less onthe monsoon season.
