If we're going to bust through resistance, it needs to happen soon. If not, we're likely to see a $100 drop in gold price, and another test of support. I would suggest the probability of a breakout at this attempt is finely balanced. The long term indications all suggest to me that an eventual upside breakout will occur. However, a break below support just above the $1200 area is NOT rated as impossible. In my view it's a very low probability (less than 10%). An upside breakout now, or after revisiting support is (in my view), rated at over 90%.
The breakout following the 2008 pullback was accompanied by TRIX turning up and TSI having a bullish crossover. Of more interest to me though, is the current very low, but bullish, up-trending TRIX and TSI. We’re in a similar position to the very early days of the last bull, with enormous upside potential. Just where you’d want to see these indicators if we are about to commence a major bull run.
As always, time will tell.