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We still may be just inside of a month away from the kickoff to college football season on August 25th, but soon enough we will all be putting away our shorts and t-shirts and grabbing for our jeans and zip-ups. Before the leaves start to change and the days start to shorten a bit, it's the perfect time to start our build-up to the 2018 NCAA football season with our conference previews and predictions. Before we get to the "power 5" conference breakdowns, we start within the "group of 5" with perhaps what will prove to be the toughest of the group of 5 conferences in the American Athletic.
Last season, UCF went unbeaten and South Florida finished the season with double-digit victories to help bring a bit more attention to the AAC. UCF finished # 6 in the final AP poll after going a perfect 13-0 on the season. South Florida finished 10-2 and ranked # 21 in the final poll in Charlie Strong's first year at the helm. While both the Black Knights and Bulls are expected to be in the upper echelon of the conference once again, they aren't the only two teams that could have a big 2018 out of this steadily-improving conference.
We start in the East Division where both UCF and South Florida are expected to be atop the standings once again, but the Temple Owls, who finished 2017 strong, could pose a problem for both of them. UConn, Cincinnati, and East Carolina all figure to still have work to do before taking the next step forward and none of the three figure to be a serious threat to break into the top 3 in the East.
UCF lost head coach Scott Frost to Nebraska as he returns to his alma mater to attempt to lead the Cornhuskers back to glory, but replaced him with a former Heisman Trophy finalist and National Championship-winning QB in Josh Heupel, who accomplished both feats while a Senior at Oklahoma in 2000. He had served as Missouri's Offensive Coordinator/QBs Coach the past 2 seasons and will be making his collegiate head coaching debut this fall. He has plenty of talent to work with as Frost certainly didn't leave the cupboard bare by any means. QB McKenzie Milton figures to be a legitimate Heisman contender, and they return enough talent on both sides of the ball to be a force once again.
Charlie Strong's South Florida Bulls figure to be right there as well as they took big strides forward on both sides of the ball in 2017. The AAC featured several of the best offenses in all of college football a season ago, and with all of those high-powered offenses, brought some pretty lousy defenses as only two teams finished with a defense inside of the top 50 in the nation and only four finished with a total defense ranking better than 88th. USF was the best in the league a season ago, finishing # 37 in the country in total defense. They return enough talent on that side of the ball to once again be able to threaten the Black Knights in the East, but ultimately their season will revolve around who can replace Quiton Flowers at QB and how much of a drop-off will there be at the position from a season ago?
The Temple Owls improved as 2017 progressed, finishing the season 4-1 in their last 5 games, including a 28-3 victory over Florida International in the Gasparilla Bowl, with their only loss coming to UCF during that closing stretch. While the offense improved, the defense was much better as well and gives the Owls some hope at possibly ruining the Black Knights' and Bulls' plans. They are probably still a year away, but will be a difficult test none-the-less and should be bowling once again this season.
The West Division is far less clear-cut as several teams appear poised for a stellar 2018 season. The biggest breakout contender out of the bunch is Tulane, who appears ready to take the next step and get back to a bowl game and finish the season with a Bowl victory - something they haven't accomplished since 2002. The Green Wave are just 4-7 all-time in Bowl games with their last appearance coming in 2013. They were 5-7 a season ago and finished 3-5 within the conference. It was a marked improvement over recent seasons, and laid the foundation to take the next step forward this season with several returning starters on both sides of the ball. The Green Wave also get a favorable schedule with difficult West match-ups against Memphis, SMU, and Navy all coming at home. A trip to Columbus to face Ohio State on September 22nd will be their most difficult game, and will serve as an early benchmark to get them primed for the conference season.
Memphis expects to challenge for the West Division and are a popular pick to emerge as the representative from that side in the AAC Title game. The Tigers had an extremely potent offense in 2017, ranking 4th in the nation in total offense. They will be good on offense once again, but did lose some talent at the receiver position that will be tough to replace. The other big issue for Memphis is that while their offense was one of the best in the country, their defense was one of the worst, and finished just 116th in 2017 in total defense. While the offense has enough returning talent to carry this team once again, it won't be as good as last season, and won't be able to compensate for some of the defenses' shortcomings as they were able to do a season ago.
Navy will also be a contender in the West and will once-again be right in the mix. The Midshipmen finished 39th in the nation in total offense and 48th in total defense a season ago and represent the only other team beside South Florida to finish with both an offense and defense ranked inside of the top 50 in the country. Navy will run the football effectively once again, and should find themselves right in the thick of the conference mix. A big road game late in the season at Tulane could go a long way to deciding who represents the West in the AAC Title game. They will once again be solid on both sides of the ball and 8 wins seems like a very realistic expectation.
Tulsa figures to be at least one more year away after a down year in which they finished just 2-10 in 2017. While the Golden Hurricane will be see some improvement this season, they will find it difficult sledding in a very balanced West Division where the other 5 teams all have a legitimate shot at finishing atop the division. The Houston Cougars may be the most difficult team to evaluate in the conference, as they return just enough talent on both sides of the ball, including the conference's top defensive player in DT Ed Oliver, to be considered a contender, but their schedule (road games @ Navy, SMU, and Memphis within conference play) may cause them to come up a tad short. SMU is similar to Houston in terms of how difficult it is to evaluate them, but the Mustangs seem poised for another solid offensive season (15th a season ago) and another awful defensive season (121st last year). They have a new coach in Sonny Dykes and will be transitioning to new schemes on both sides of the ball, making it difficult to envision them making huge improvements on last season's 7-6 campaign that ended in a blowout loss in the Miami Beach Bowl. The Mustangs should be back in a bowl game once again though, but don't expect them to be in the conference title mix.
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE Predictions
EAST DIVISION
UCF (7-1, 12-1)*ā
South Florida (6-2, 9-3)
Temple (5-3, 8-4)
UConn (2-6, 4-8)
Cincinnati (2-6, 4-8)
East Carolina (1-7, 3-9)
WEST DIVISION
Tulane (5-3, 8-4)*
Memphis (5-3, 8-4)
Navy (5-3, 8-4)
Houston (4-4, 6-6)
SMU (4-4, 6-6)
Tulsa (2-6, 4-8)
ā-UCF over Tulane in AAC Title Game; Conference Champions
Ultimately, we took Central Florida to once again win the conference, and while it remains to be seen what the Black Knights do for an encore to their 2017 campaign that ended with a self-claimed National Championship (something that is not all that uncommon by the way - especially as recently as the 1980s and 1990s when several major programs went back and made claims to pieces of several previous National Championships). While we predict UCF to fall just short of last season's perfect season, the drop-off doesn't appear to be severe at all and the Black Knights should find themselves comfortably back in the top 15-20 for most of the season. If they can maintain and duplicate last year's lofty feat of an unbeaten season, they may finally figure into the playoff conversation more seriously this season after not really getting any serious consideration from the committee last year.
We took Tulane to emerge out of the jumbled West Division, based off of a deep and complex tie-breaker that we won't get into now. It just goes to show how close the conference race is expected to be as really 5 of the 6 teams are all predicted to finish within a game of each other in the standings. Don't be surprised if there is in fact a two-way, three-way, and or even believe-it-or-not a 4-way tie atop the West. A tie-breaker falling to Memphis or Navy or even Houston would not be all that surprising and all three are expected to finish right there with Tulane. In the end, we feel The Green Wave do enough to take the big jump forward, but it won't it be easy.
Player to Watch/ Offensive Player of the Year:
McKenzie Milton QB UCF
2017: 4,037 yards passing; 37 TD / 9 INT; 67.1 comp %; 179.3 rating; 613 yards rushing; 8 TD; 5.8 ypc
Career: 47 TD pass/ 16 INT; 11 TD rush
Defensive Player of the Year:
Ed Oliver DT Houston
2017: 73 total tackles; 16.5 for loss; 5.5 sacks; 1 fumble recovery; 2 forced fumbles
Career: 138 total tackles; 38.5 for loss; 10.5 sack; 1 fumble recovery; 4 forced fumbles
That wraps up the first of our 2018 college football previews, with plenty more coverage to come as we are just getting started with our previews and predictions in the lead-up to the 2018 season. Be sure to check back for more coverage including our preseason top 25 rankings, power 5 conference predictions, Heisman trophy contenders, and picks to make the college football playoff plus much, much more. No matter who your alma mater or favorite team might be, we'll have them all covered!
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