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SteemSports Editor:
Welcome back to our ongoing build-up to the 2018 NCAA football season. While we tackled the American Athletic Conference in our first preview, today we will focus on another one of the "group of 6" conferences. Just like the AAC, the Mountain West figures to be improved this season from top-to-bottom, and just like the AAC, features a couple of teams poised for top 25 seasons, and may even possibly have the best team in all of the "group of 6" schools heading into the 2018 season.
Boise State figures to be loaded once again, as Bryan Harsin's squad returns 15 starters from last year's conference championship team. Senior Quarterback Brett Rypien leads the way for a Bronco offense that figures to be in good shape heading into the 2018 campaign. The nephew of former NFL-quarterback Mark Rypien, returns once again to lead the offense for a fourth season. He's a 4-year starter and over his Freshman, Sophomore, and Junior seasons accumulated 9,876 yards passing, while throwing 60 TDs to 22 INTs. He's as experienced as they come, as he's already played in 37 games over his first 3 seasons, accumulating a record of 28-9.
1,000-yard rusher Alexander Mattison returns as well, and a stellar defense that surrendered 22.9 points per contest a season ago, could be even better this year, despite the loss of standout linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to the NFL. While many are high on the Broncos' D heading into 2018, it's important to note that this unit struggled in several games last season, even with standout Vander Esch. If the D is going to make strides while replacing their star linebacker, they will need to improve on the 47 points they surrendered in a road loss to Washington State last season, as well the 42 they surrendered to Virginia in a home blowout loss, and the 52 they surrendered in a road OT win over an average Colorado State team.
The Broncos still figure to be the best in the conference, and overall should be improved from last year's 11-3 campaign that ended with a 17-14 victory over Fresno State in the MWC Title game, and a 38-28 victory over Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. The schedule falls in their favor as well, with tough conference games against Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State all coming at home on the blue turf. Look for Boise State to push UCF as the best team out of all of the "group of 6" schools, and the berth in a New Year's Six Bowl game that comes with it.
Behind the Broncos in the East Division is a tough choice between a surprisingly good Utah State team from a year ago, Wyoming, and Colorado State. Utah State was especially stingy against the pass a season ago, ranking # 19 nationally in total passing yards allowed. Now they need to make significant strides in stopping the run if they are to take another step forward in 2018. They ranked just 115th against the rush in 2017, getting shredded to the tune of 216.4 yards per game. Just how good the Aggies finish this year will depend greatly on how much better they defend the run in 2018.
Utah State wasn't the only team in the East Division that was stingy against the pass a season ago, as Wyoming finished # 13 nationally in passing yards allowed in 2017. While the Cowboys were especially good against the pass, they were adequate at defending the run as well, and finished with the # 23 ranked defense in all of college football. Of course, the attention on the Cowboys last year was on Quarterback Josh Allen and the hype surrounding his draft stock. While they didn't lean on their star too much in 2017, his loss will still be the biggest factor for Wyoming to overcome this season. Last season's recipe of using a balanced offense, that relied on the run to chew clock in the second half of games, and stingy D was the perfect recipe for a 8-5 season that ended with a bowl victory. Despite the loss of Allen to the draft, we expect the Cowboys to be bowling once again in 2018, as pre-season All-American Safety Andrew Wingard returns to lead the defense once again, and their home matchup with Boise State on Sept 29 may be the East Division's best chance at handing the Broncos a loss.
Colorado State got off to a bit of an inconsistent start last season, thrashing Oregon State 58-27 to start the season, and then were held to just a field goal the following week in a lackluster 17-3 loss to in-state rivals Colorado. They finished the season 7-6 after a loss in the New Mexico Bowl. They should be good enough to go bowling once again in 2018, but are one of the tougher teams to forecast. They lost a significant amount of talent - especially at the receiver position - but return enough to make this team a bit of a wild card. Conference road games at Boise State and Nevada will be difficult, but they get Wyoming and Utah State at home. .500 seems about right for the Rams.
After that there is nothing to suggest that New Mexico will finally take the step forward they've been waiting for under Bob Davie, who guided the program to back-to-back bowl games in 2015 & 2016, including 9 wins in 2016. Last season's 3-9 disappointment has landed him on the hot seat, as he's now posted a record of just 30-45 in his six seasons in Albuquerque. While the Lobos are looking to return to their 2016 ways, it won't be easy in a conference that has gotten better and deeper in the past couple of years.
Air Force will once again run the football effectively, but they need to make major improvements on the defensive side of the ball where they surrendered 56 and 48, respectively, in road losses to New Mexico and Navy. They also gave up 44 to Boise State and 42 to Nevada, and will need to improve greatly on the 32.4 points they surrendered per game in 2017. When taking the 62-0 victory over FCS opponent VMI out of the equation, they gave up 35.4 points to FBS schools. The Falcons figure to still be at least a year away from making major improvements on that side of the ball.
Looking at the West Division, it should once again come down to Fresno State and San Diego State. The Bulldogs were one of college football's most improved programs a year ago, improving from just 1-11 in 2016, to 10-4 a season ago and an appearance in the MWC Title game. Head coach Jeff Tedford will look to build off of his stellar first season in Fresno, and their home matchup with San Diego State on Nov 17th may very well decide who represents the west in the title game. Fresno State is our pick to battle Boise once in a rematch of last year's Conference Title game, in large part, to getting the big San Diego State matchup at home.
The Aztecs will be difficult to beat, as they allowed just 17.9 points per game a season ago (good for 2nd best in the MWC) and although they lost prolific rusher Rashaad Penny, have a talented and capable replacement in Juwan Washington (759 yards in 17') who came on strong as last season wore on. While the defense figures to once-again be a strongpoint, they will be breaking in 4 new starters up front, which is always a bit of a crap-shoot. The secondary and linebacking core should be very good, but this team's success will likely rest on how the new defensive front performs and how much of a factor Washington can be on offense. Look for another stellar season for the Aztecs, ending in another bowl game.
After the Bulldogs and Aztecs, it's a pair of much-improved programs with UNLV and Nevada. The Runnin Rebels just missed out on a bowl game after going 5-7 a year ago in Tony Sanchez's 3rd year. We feel the Rebels will take the next step forward this year and get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2014 and only the fifth time ever. It won't be easy, but key matchups against Air Force, Fresno State, and Nevada all fall at home, which should be enough to push the Rebels over .500. The Wolfpack will also continue on last year's improvement and should be in the mix to end their season with a bowl birth as well. Quarterback Ty Gangi is the top returning passer in the conference (2746 yards, 25TD / 11INT) and finds himself on numerous preseason awards watch-lists. If the Wolfpack are to continue to improve on last year's 3-9 mark, the arm of Gangi will likely be the major catalyst. Look for Nevada to improve enough to contend for a bowl game, although we feel they will come up just short.
There's not much to get excited about for the Rainbows of Hawaii or Spartans of San Jose State, as it figures to be a long year for both programs. While Hawaii should win 3-5 games, it won't be enough to get to a bowl game, and San Jose State just doesn't have the firepower on offense, or talent on defense to make much improvements over a disappointing 2017 campaign. At least Spartans fans can enjoy watching tackling machine Frank Ginda, who is a pre-season All-American Linebacker on our list, after piling up a mind-boggling 173 total tackles a season ago. This will be Ginda's fourth year as a starter and he has 351 career tackles heading into 2018. While Ginda will be a beast, the Spartans need much more help around him if they are to significantly improve on last year's 124th ranked defense (499.3 yards allowed per game - ouch!).
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE Predictions
EAST DIVISION
BOISE STATE (8-0, 12-1) *♔
WYOMING (5-3, 7-5)
COLORADO STATE (5-3, 6-6)
UTAH STATE (4-4, 7-5)
AIR FORCE (3-5, 4-8)
NEW MEXICO (1-7, 3-9)
WEST DIVISION
FRESNO STATE (7-1, 10-2) *
SAN DIEGO STATE (6-2, 9-3)
UNLV (4-4, 7-5)
NEVADA (3-5, 5-7)
HAWAII (2-6, 4-9)
SAN JOSE STATE (1-7, 2-10)
♔ - BOISE STATE over Fresno State in MWC Title Game; Conference Champions
Ultimately, we took the Broncos to once-again top the Mountain West, and defeat Fresno State in the conference title game in a rematch from last year. Boise State could even challenge for a playoff spot, but will need to run the table to have any chance of figuring into the conversation. At any rate, they should be able to improve on last year's 11-3 mark, and make a serious push for a New Year's Six Bowl.
Player to Watch/ Offensive Player of the Year:
Brett Rypien QB Boise State
2017: 2,877 yards passing; 16 TD/ 6 INT; 62.6 comp %; 143.8 rating
Career: 9,873 yards passing; 60 TD/ 22 INT; 62.7 comp %; 146.8 rating
Defensive Player of the Year:
Andrew Wingard S Wyoming
2017: 114 total tackles; 8.0 for loss; 1.0 sack; 5 INT; 1 fumble recovery; 2 forced fumbles
Career: 367 total tackles; 22.5 for loss; 3.0 sacks; 8 INT; 1 fumble recovery; 5 forced fumbles
While we discussed Rypien already, he's the obvious choice for offensive player of the year, but Nevada QB Ty Gangi could contend as well, we haven't talked that much about Wyoming safety Andrew Wingard. Wingard is a 4-year starter, who led the conference in tackles in 2016, led the conference in INT in 2017, is a two-time 1st-Team All-MWC safety, and was a Thorpe Award semifinalist in 2016. He was on 3 major award watch-lists throughout 2017, and we wouldn't at all be surprised if took home some hardware at the end of his senior season. He's one of the top safeties in not just the Mountain West conference, but in all of college football. Look for another monster year out of the Wyoming safety.
That concludes our Mountain West Conference 2018 preview, be sure to check back for more conference previews, our pre-season top 25, Heisman contenders, pre-season All-Americans, picks for the college football playoff and much, much more!
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