SteemSports Presenter:
SteemSports Editor:
The MLB season is winding down and while the American League has been anti-climatic for a few months now, the National League as a whole and the AL Wild Card positioning are continuing to provide some drama as we hit the final 15-17 games.
The Boston Red Sox have already clinched a playoff spot and it won't be long until they wrap-up the AL East and best record in baseball. And while the AL has been anti-climatic in terms of tight division races, the League has provided the 5-best teams in baseball record-wise for most of the season, including how the teams currently sit as we head into Friday's games (the Cubs are the exception - currently the fifth-best record) Boston is a mind-boggling 101-46 and sit 10.5 games better than the Yankees.
The Yankees are holding off the A's for the top Wild Card spot at 90-56, but that's just 1.5 games better than Oakland at 89-58. It's hard to fathom that Oakland was actually just 34-36 on June 15th. Since then, they've been absolutely incredible, going 55-22 - good for an insane .714 winning % over that stretch. In a normal season, the A's would most likely be competing for the best record not just in the AL, but in all of baseball. This season, though, that record is good enough for just the fourth- best record- and # 2 Wild Card in the American League...
The Houston Astros were setting records for their dominant pitching prowess, including incredibly-low team ERA numbers that stayed well below 3.00 for over the first 2 1/2 months + of the season. Those numbers have reverted back a bit to the mean, but the defending Champs are still 92-54 and sit 3.5 ahead of the A's in the AL West.
The A's and Astros are the only competitive division race left in the AL, thanks to the Indians completely dominating the ultra-weak AL Central. Cleveland should have the division wrapped up within a day or two - they are currently 82-64 - and have a 15.0 game lead on the 2nd place Twins with just 16 games left to play.
With Boston, Cleveland, and Houston all locks, that just leaves the aforementioned Yankees and A's, who might be the most formidable pair of Wild Card teams in the history of baseball. What the Tampa Bay Rays have done this year behind the Red Sox and Yankees is actually pretty incredible - they now sit at 80-65, have been improving steadily throughout the second half, and in a normal situation would be right in the thick of the Wild Card. Unfortunately for this years version of the AL, they are 8.0 games back of the A's for the 2nd Wild Card spot and would virtually have to win-out to have a chance. If they were in the NL, they would be tied for the 2nd Wild Card spot.
What does it mean? It means that while the next two weeks are going to be anticlimactic in the AL, the playoffs are going to be epic. We could theoretically end up with four 100-win teams in the AL - with two of them squaring off in the Wild Card play-in game, with the other team being maybe the best overall team in terms of balanced pitching, hitting, and power out of all of them. The playoffs are going to be a real treat, and feature historically good teams - whoever emerges as the American League Champions will have earned it, and even that is an understatement.
Division/Postseason odds:
Boston Red Sox (101-46) (clinched playoff spot)
99.0%/100.0%
Cleveland Indians (82-64)
100.0%/100.0%
Houston Astros (92-54)
65.0%/98.0%
Oakland Athletics (89-58)
35.0%/92.0%
New York Yankees (90-56)
1.0%/99.0%
Tampa Bay Rays (80-65)
0.0%/5.0%
Seattle Mariners (80-66)
0.0%/3.0%
Meanwhile, the NL continues to provide a little of drama coming down the stretch as the Central and West both have compelling races playing out down the stretch. The once super competitive NL East has turned into Atlanta's to win as the Phillies have faded considerably since the All-Star break and are now 7.5 back of the Braves and even further back in the Wild Card race. At 82-64, Atlanta appears like they should be able to wrap-up the division with about a week left, barring a red-hot winning streak from the Phils.
The NL Central is the cream of the crop in baseball this season, and features the two teams with the NLs best records with the Cubs sitting 1.5 better than the Brewers at 85-61. Milwaukee is right behind at 84-63 and have managed to close the gap in the division from 5.0 games just a little over a week ago. The St. Louis Cardinals sit 3.0 back of Milwaukee at 81-66 and currently own the 2nd Wild Card spot. Believe-it-not (and no disrespect to the Dodgers or Rockies) but these three teams are the three best in the NL, and all reside in the Central. It is a bit reminiscent of last year's NL West where the Dodgers ran away with the leagues' best record and both the D-Backs and Rockies took the Wild Card spots. While the Pirates are realistically out of the postseason picture, they have yet to be eliminated, as they are 72-73. Even the last-place Reds have one of the best offensive lineups in all of baseball.
Meanwhile, the West is again providing some drama between the 3 aforementioned clubs that all duked it out last year. The Rockies currently have the leg-up as they lead the Dodgers by 1.5 games. The D-Backs, who led the division for the majority of the season, are in the midst of a slump at the wrong time - they are just 3-7 in their last 10, and have faded back to 4.5 behind Colorado, but are still in it at 77-70 overall. The Dodgers meanwhile, continue to be the favorite thanks to many projecting computers, but I'm not entirely sure why. They are just 26-24 since landing Manny Machado - the prized bat that was supposed to be the difference-maker when they acquired him. They defeated the Cardinals in a huge game last night and the next 3 with St. Louis will go a long-way in sorting out the Wild Card race.
What does it mean? Well there is a lot to still be decided, but one thing is no postseason for the Nationals, who have been one of the better NL teams for the past 6-7 years. A young Atlanta club with a potent lineup will be an interesting team to watch in the playoffs. The general perception is that this team just doesn't have enough high-end starting pitching to go far in the postseason, but with this lineup, they can matchup with anybody in the NL. The Brewers and Cubs both look good and have been playing good baseball for the last couple of weeks, and neither one wants to see the other in the postseason. Both can pitch (advantage to Chicago in starting pitching, advantage Milwaukee in bullpen strength), both can come up with timely hitting, and both have tough lineups from top to bottom. It also means that whoever comes out of the West will once-again be battle-tested. It should make for a very competitive NL playoffs as well as there really doesn't seem to be a clear favorite out of any of the potential playoff squads. Buckle-up the ride is just beginning!
Division/Postseason Odds:
Atlanta Braves (82-64)
92.0%/94.0%
Chicago Cubs (85-61)
45.0%/100.0%
Milwaukee Brewers (84-63)
38.0%/92.0%
St. Louis Cardinals (81-66)
17.0%/48.0%
Colorado Rockies (81-65)
36.0%/44.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers (80-67)
38.0%/45.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks (77-70)
26.0%/29.0%
Philadelphia Phillies (74-71)
8.0%/8.0%
Five of the above eight teams will make it to the postseason. While most still feel it will be the Dodgers surpassing the Rockies, I'm not totally convinced. The odds are pretty well split, but nothing is quite decided in what has been a very competitive National League. Look for Atlanta to wrap up the East sooner rather than later, look for the Cubs and Brewers to provide a close, drama-filled race to the end, and look for the Rockies, Dodgers, and Cardinals to provide extra drama right up until the end as well. At any rate, it is going to get intense over the next couple weeks!
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