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Finals So Far: Warriors have tarnished the Cavs twice at Oracle Arena and they are leading 2-0. The Importance Of The 3rd Game: If the Warriors win, they will practically be the champions. If the Cavs win, they'll still have a shot at the trophy. Chances: 65/35 in Warriors favor. GSW Key For Victory: Fast pace and aggressiveness on offense, and passing the ball to Durant. Cavaliers Key To The Victory: Three-pointers and impact from role players like J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, and Tristan Tompson.
The Importance Of Kevin Durant For This Series
The Golden State Warriors are leading the finals 2-0 just like the last year. There is only one minor difference, the Warriors have Kevin Durant on their team. There were never any doubts about Durant's talent, but we must admit, he is playing beyond any expectations, and proving himself as NBA Finals MVP so far. He won the first game with his drives to the basket, and he dominated the game in the second match as well.
If we saw how Kevin Durant's game curve was slowly declining in Oklahoma then today, at Oakland, he is playing his best basketball ever. What is the main reason? Kevin Durant has much more space in this Warriors team. Before, every opponent used the double-team on Durant whenever he got the ball then now it is not an option anymore because when Durant has Green, Thompson, and Curry on his side, he could simply pass the ball when facing double-team. And let's be honest; no player in the league can efficiently guard Durant 1 on 1. On top of all that, Durant started showing efforts on the defensive end of the floor as well. As his role on offense is not that important compared to what it was in Oklahoma, (there are some possessions when Durant is not needed at all) Durant has had much more energy left for the defense. We could already feel that in game 2 when he blocked the hell out of the Cavaliers.
If (when?) the Warriors win the championship, I have no doubts that Durant will add the Finals MVP award to his collection.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Despite the fact that the Cavaliers lost the first two games and looking much worse than the Warriors so far, we cannot rule them out. LeBron James was clear on the post-conference after game 2 that the Cavaliers will give there best efforts to come back to Oakland next week for game 5. LeBron was super calm (surprisingly), and I could hear no panic in his words. He was sad, of course, but not yet done. The most important thing he said is that he fully trust Kyrie Irving and he believes that Kyrie would eventually start making those shots.
Yup, Kyrie Irving is the guy we must look at for game 3. We already saw how he made some clutch shots in last year's finals, and I bet everyone remembers this year's game winner against GSW on a regular season. Kyrie, without a doubt, is the second man on this Cavaliers team and his presence is much needed. You know what? I am pretty positive that we will see him playing at an entirely different level in game 3. Same thing happened last year, remember? The Cavs were losing 2-0 in the series and Kyrie, with his 20 first quarter points, brought back the Cavaliers to the title race.
And still... LeBron's and Kyrie's magic won't be enough for the Cavaliers to defeat the Warriors if role players fail to deliver. I am talking about J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, and Kyle Korver here. Those three must start playing because so far, it is unclear why the Cavaliers are paying them millions. Kyle Korver fails to shoot the ball, Tristan Thompson cannot dominate weak Warriors big guys, and J.R. Smith... well, it looks like he is still partying after winning the trophy last year.
Defensively, the Cavaliers will have to play as they did in the first half of the second game (yes, I remember that they conceded 67 points, but it was due to fast paced game but not bad defense). However, this time they will have to execute the plan for 48 minutes. I loved how the Cavaliers forced GSW to make over 20 turnovers. The only thing to improve will be the fact that the Cavaliers must stop making stupid fouls which lead to easy points. The more I write, the better I understand how hard it will be for the Cavaliers to win. Their only chance is to outscore the Warriors and shoot over 50% FG. Otherwise, the Warriors will rape the Cav's defense once again.
Golden State Warriors
The best way to defeat this Warriors team would be to have Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or Shaquille O'Neal (preferably both) in their prime. The only weakness that GSW has is in their center position. Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee (that guy is either dumb or the best actor in the world) are only average at their best, and Kareem/Shaq would score 50+ points every game against those two. Also, GSW would not be able to play Draymond Green as a 5. That is why it is so important for Tristan Thompson to start dominating. Sadly, he is no Shaq or Kareem, and the Warriors know that.
Apart from a weak, a positive a defensive plan which would work perfectly. The best thing that Warrior's opponents can do is take some risks, being aggressive, and forcing some bad shots (I doubt that there is a shot that would be "bad" for Durant or Curry, though).
And still, I expect to see some signs of relaxation from GSW in game 3. I mean, they know they are the dominant force in the NBA at the moment, and they have 2-0 lead. It is a human's nature to become lazy at moments like this. I know that they are pros and their motivation will be on top, but believe me, we will see some "I don't give AF, I am a champion" moments in game 3. Those things happen subconsciously. Also, Cleveland's fans will make GSW feel as they are in freaking hell. Those little things might help. Other from that - it is Warriors game/series to lose at this point.
Prediction For Game 3
I can see a tight game from the first second of the match, I expect Kyrie to take the leadership offensively, which would give LeBron more freedom and keep him fresh for longer. Also, the Cavaliers cannot fail to make those three-pointers for any longer, and I bet that Tyronn Lue already has a plan how to untie his shooters' hands.
On the other side of the floor, the Warriors will try to play fast and aggressive, as always. Even though role players like Clark and Livingston were not needed in this series thus far, I believe we might see one of them exploding in game 3. After all, when all the attention goes to Durant, Curry, and Thompson, it is normal that other players have more space to them. I have a feeling that GSW will find a way to use that free space.
As for the leaders of both teams, I expect nothing less than they have provided in the first two games. There are no doubts that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steve Curry will have a solid game as it would be too crucial to choke now.
Even though I believe that the Warriors are the clear favorites to win game 3, I still lean towards the Cavaliers. I expect a high scoring thriller which will end with the Cavaliers victory, 122-118.