We've had a tremendous rally in the stock market since December 26.

As we can see here.

Markets will have almost recovered, almost their losses from December period and many people are scratching their heads and thinking what's going on here.

But there is one market that actually sheds an important light, as to what's probably happening in the stock market.

In fact, there's one market that's probably saying that this rally we're seeing in the stock market could be actually a fake rally or maybe a bull trap.

Chart of TLT

Having a look at the chart of TLT which is a 20 year Treasuries. Now, why do we say that this market knows everything? What is this chart or this market knows all? Because the people who trade this particular market are not your average folks in the high street.

Most people out there don't trade bonds. They trade stocks or FX, gold or Bitcoin etc but not bonds. So bonds are usually traded by the smart money financial institutions, big money traders.

So that's why when we say this market knows all, when look at the chart above, we're essentially looking into what the smart money is thinking, what the institutions are thinking. And bonds usually are correlated negatively to the stock market, bonds going up as a direction to the stock market and usually bonds go up in times of uncertainty as a flight to safety, if you want to call it.

So, the fact that bond are still holding strong, given the fact that stock market is holding strong as well, something is not quite right here.

This chart indicates that the big players probably have not completely changed their minds about the uncertainties in the market.

They probably think that there's going to be more uncertainty and more volatility in the market ahead.