"You're into crypto? Which coin will be the next to do that Elliot Thingie?"
"Um, no." I wait for their confusion to build for a moment, and then I go directly for what might be perceived as heresy. "By the way, can you please explain to me what actual "Elliot Waves" are and why I should give a damn?" And, the result is usually what I would expect -- a look of horror as if I were to stab a precious baby to death. Either that, or a look of hostility is if I am the most ignorant man on Earth. Sometimes, it's a mixture of both.
Ever since the explosion of Bitcoin and crypto-currencies over the last few months, I have had to put up with some interesting and sometimes annoying discussions with people. The boom has brought in people seeking profit. I am not complaining about that part. However, the influx of more mainstream people into the Crypto world brings with it other issues.
- People have told me that Bitcoin is currently dead. As of this writing, it's around 14,000 given up and down fluctuations. That's a hell of a lot more than what it was last year. How is that actually a sign of death and not massive profitability?
- Ripple (Or Insert Any Coin Here) is the next big thing! Expect Elliot Waves! Really, what the fuck ever. Ripple is now at $2.46 for one coin. How can that, or any of the other smaller alt-coins that self proclaimed trading gurus scream about, begin to dent Ethereum, which is the number 2 Crypto currency at this time?
- "I found this really good online crypto analyst! He makes the most simple to read pie charts and graphs. He says I should buy Umpah-Loompah Coin because it has the potential of doing something involved with Elliot Waves." Oh, fuck no...
It goes like this, and I really hate to be the one to break it people. Crypto is in a bull market, right now. The easiest time in the world to be an "analyst" is during a bull market. All you have to do is tell somebody to buy something they already want. They do so, and then all of sudden, they think you're a genius. That's called confirmation bias, by with way. You like somebody because they told you like something you already liked,.Everything else is on an up trajectory, so it's hard not to find a pick that will value upwards in the near term.
The truth of the matter is this: all bull markets have ended. Don't believe me? Look at history, if one hadn't ended most of us would disastrously wealthy by now. For me, it's a lot more personal. There was a housing bubble in the mid-2000's. I was married at the time, and my wife and I couldn't afford the down payment. Banks were handing out mortgages to people who really shouldn't have had them in the first place. Yet, everybody around my future ex-wife and I were going "Buy! Buy! Buy!" And then the Great Recession happened. Now we no longer had a property we could afford. Personally for me, Short-Selling had to happen. Yes, it's not foreclosure in name, but's the same thing. You lost. Your credit rating forever sucks because if it. By the way, I'm now divorced and live in China because I couldn't find full time college teaching employment in the USA to pay said mortgage.
How I ended up in the crypto world is a weird story. While there was an interest in making some money on the side, I didn't come here because I thought I would make a "millions" off of a few trades. I hold the coins I want to hold. I trade the ones I want or don't want. That's it. That's all for me. That's all I want it to be. The next person that screams "Eliot Wave" in my face will just get a shrug and a look of disinterest as I walk away.
LEGAL NOTICE: None of this is intended as actual investing advice. I am known to be a drunken idiot.