Ministers have resigned. Shots have been fired across the house. Senators have flared up. Over the past seventy-two hours, Australia has watched a confused Liberal party struggle to find its own leader and political identity.
What happened, anyway?
Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull opened the Liberal Party room with a spill on Tuesday Morning. After spending the previous week denying the possibility of a leadership challenge, Minister for Home Affairs, Immigration and Border protection challenges Turnbull.
The party votes anonymously 48-35, favouring Turnbull as Liberal leader and PM. Although Turnbull offers for Dutton to keep his portfolio, he resigns as a frontbencher. Instead, he sits in on the backbench while he attempts to build his campaign for leadership.
On Tuesday afternoon (21 August), frontbenches Michael Sukkar, , Angus Taylor, James McGrath, Zed Seselja, Michael Keenan, Alan Tudge, Steve Ciobo, Greg Hunt, and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells offer to quit their portfolios as they are apparent Dutton supporters.
Turnbull declines most resignations. Senator Fierravanti-Wells' reisgnation is however accepted - a consequence of her controversial resignation letter that accuses the Liberal party from 'moving away from its conservative base.'
Turnbull pleads for unity alongside Foreign Affairs Minister and Deputy Leader Julia Bishop.
Meanwhile, Labour takes this opportunity to scrutinise the Liberal party while building Shorten's case as potential future PM for Australia. Shorten takes to Twitter to promise the establishment of a National Integrity Comission, and the 'reversal' of Liberal's 2017-18 budget changes.
Parliment is Adjourned.
Yesterday (Thursday, 23 August), the lower house is adjourned by the Coalition. Turnbull is informed he doesn't have wide support from his Party, and a total of thirteen Ministers have resigned.
Labour criticises this decision strongly.
'There will be no question time today because [liberal] don't know who their ministers are... This country doesn't need a different leader, it needs a different government, a passionate Shorten argued during question time.
Manager of Opposition Business Tony Burke offered a fiery opinion on this, too.
'No government in living memory has said it's all too hard, we're going home.'
Meanwhile, in the upper house Greens Senator Richard Di Natale gave an emotional speech. Focusing on wider Australian and international humanitarian issues, he criticises the 'selfish' government for focusing on itself.
Turnbull offers to call a spill, Bishop and Morrison step up.
If Dutton supporters present a petition with 43 signatures (a majority of the Liberal party), Turnbull says he will call a spill. He will cease to contest the leadership position and resign - 'Former Prime Ministers are best out of the parliment.'
Scott Morrison and Julia Bishop both state they will contest the leadership if the petition is successful. It becomes a race between the right-winged christian Dutton, softer yet economically conservative Morrison, and Bishop who receives less criticism from the public out of the trio. Nonetheless, if the petition is successful this will be Liberal's popularity vote, not the public's.
The potential issue with Dutton.
During question time on Tuesday, Labour questioned the PM about Dutton's eligibility to sit in parliment.
The issue here is Dutton's child care company, which has recieved more than $5.3 million in commonwealth funding since 2014. This may be an issue under section 45 of the Constituion, which states that:
'If a member of the House of Representatives directly or indirectly takes or agrees to take any fee or honorarium for services rendered to the Commonwealth, or for services rendered in the Parliament to any person or State; his place shall thereupon become vacant.' Source
Labour proposed a motion to refer Dutton to the High Court to determine his eligibility; however, the motion was unsuccessful by 1 vote. With an outcome of 69-68, Dutton's own vote helped him avoid such a referral.
Instead, PM Turnbull asked the Solicitor General on Thursday for advise on Dutton's eligibility. The Solicitor General is set to give an informed opinion this morning, one which may have a strong impact on Dutton's quest for leadership if his eligibility is questioned.
It is however important to note that the Solicitor General's advise has no legal binding ramifications. The final decision will need to be made be either the lower house, or referred to the high court. With Parliment adjourned until September 10, the latter is less likely.
At a deadlock
Since last night, it has been reported that the Liberal party's petition has collected 42 signatures. Although it is rumoured there are more Backbenches who wish to support the petition, they won't disclose their signatures as it is an 'anonymous' vote.
Queensland MP Warren Entsch has indicated that he will add his signature to the petition to break the deadliock 'if necessary'. This will be a last resort if the petition remains deadlocked.
A hard shift to the left.
The underlying factor with this whole leadership crisis is Liberal's identity. Branded as a moderate-right winged party under Turnbull, who is frequently criticised for being too right-winged by the coalition, Liberal has lots its identity.
Under Dutton, we would see a pull to the right. A more conservative, right-winged party with dramatic business legislation changes.
Unlike a Turnbull-Dutton, a Morrison-Turnbull government wouldn't be such a hard-shift to the right. Indeed, he is christian; however, some of Morrison's social views are more moderate.
While the polls paint Julia Bishop in a more positive light than both her opponents, she may be too moderate for the extreme conservatives in her party.
For now, the outcome of this leadership spill remains speculation. Although dependant on advice from the country's top lawyer and the dead-lock being broken, a leadership spill is certainly likely.
What about an election?
The government is allowed to call a federal election anytime between August 4th 2018 and 2 November 2019. Although Labour are calling for an election, the possibility remains unlikely yet prominent.
With a Victorian state election in November 2018 and a New South Whales one in March 2019, it is very unlikely to fall on these dates. The logistics of having a state and federal election within the same month are complicated and unfavourable by voters.
Since Jon Howard's government in 2007, we haven't seen a PM serve a full term. Before the Turnbull-Abbot government, we witnessed Labour's bloody Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Government mess. Hence, Voters are certainly sick to some extent of both parties and their leadership issues.
At this point, an election seems unlikely and unfavourable for the Liberal Party to willingly hold. Sure, Turnbull could theoretically shock everyone in Australia and call a sudden election in a last-minute attempt to survive this spill, but such a bold action could be Liberal's downfall.
Whoever Australia's next Prime Minister is, an election this year is unlikely. We'll need to wait until later today for the results of Liberal's Spill.
More updates to come.
Sources:
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