As speculators we need to understand technological disruptions that are going to happen on a massive scale in order to be able to position our portfolios accordingly and profit from those paradigm shifts.
Most people severely underestimate the impact electric vehicles and the business model of Transportation-as-a-service is going to have on the developed world (and eventually everywhere).
Internal-combustion vehicles are becoming obsolete much faster than the vast majority of people can imagine.
I highly recommend this 53 min. presentation Tony Seba gave in Oslo last year. It will be well worth your time:
There are four key technology categories that will disrupt energy and transportation:
- Batteries / Energy Storage
- Electric Vehicles
- Self-Driving Vehicles
- Solar Energy
Here is what the future looks like by 2030:
• All new vehicles will be electric
• All new vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving)
• Oil will be obsolete
• Coal, natural gas and nuclear will be obsolete
• 80+ per cent of all parking spaces will be obsolete
• Individual car ownership will be obsolete
• All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)
The Clean Disruption is inevitable and it will be swift.
There is also a great report out by RethinkX, an independent think tank that analyzes and forecasts the speed and scale of technology-driven disruption and its implications across society. It's called Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030
It analyzes the impacts of disruption, sector by sector, across the economy.
The investment implications are manifold and I'll look at some of them in future articles.