Personally, I'm coming to think that because of the overlapping emergent processes involved in this particular type of market, there are no people who are "most knowledgeable."

There are people who are really good at lying about it, but no one who actually has actionable knowledge. Rules of thumb, approximations, some ideas, cultist tendencies, systems that won't work – everything you find in a population of gamblers.

But not predictive knowledge.

Would it make a difference to you if the state of affairs was accurately reflected by what I just said? Would you choose to act in a different manner?