I've been thinking a lot over the last few months about how the broad acceptance of electric vehicles and self-driving technology will impact the oil and automaking industries.
Electric vehicles are proving to have not only significantly lower per-mile operating costs than internal combustion cars, but they are also lasting longer. The drivetrains are much simpler than fossil-fuel machines and are simpler to maintain.
This, coupled with self driving technology which should hit the market in 2021-2013 will make the cost of renting a ride on a shared vehicle much cheaper than paying to own a vehicle. Similar to how the move away from coal fueled power generation (to cheap NG) had destroyed the coal mining industry in less than a decade, I think this trend will deal a serious blow to the big oil companies and automakers.
The demand for oil will drop significantly; enough to destroy profitability and flip the value of pipelines and oil rigs upside-down. Since the cost of using shared vehicles on-demand will be significantly cheaper than owning a car directly, most people won't own a car unless they have a transport need which is not served by ride sharing. This will dramatically reduce the sales of vehicles to consumers.
Thoughts?
I'm bracing for a serious economic upset as these huge pieces of the economy are upended and crash.