Hi everyone!
On November 21 2019, I watched the Cybertruck launch and I was pumped! I wrote all about my excitement on Coil.com (which no longer exists) and so I can't go back to see everything that I wrote about... but I was so excited to get a self-driving, 500 mile range truck for $40K. I legitimately looked into putting down the $1,000 USD deposit, and the only reason I didn't is that by the time the launch finished there was already over 100,000 deposits received (Tesla made $14M that day on deposits) and I felt like I was already too late.
I remember detailing how I thought the Cybertruck could revolutionize agriculture... farmers could use the Cybertruck as a cheap automated tractor for seeding and harvest.
That wasn't a huge leap to take considering they also unveiled the companion ATV that night.
Unfortunately, I watched the Tesla Cybercab launch last night with way more skepticism... and it honestly was way too short, absolutely lacking in detail and ultimately disappointing.
I've watched Cybertruck, Model 3 and Model Y product launches... and after all of those I was able to go into Tesla's website and see all the specification details and people would be able to actually order or preorder a vehicle right then. It's now the day after the launch and there is literally nothing on the Cybercab website to order... I don't understand why this launch even happened if nothing was actually launched.
You'll be able to find lots of articles and stories on the launch itself, so I won't go into details about the event itself...
... but I definitely think I'm not the only person disappointed.
Elon's presentation really didn't have anything new that we hadn't heard before in Earnings calls or interviews. I guess the newest information was:
- Tesla Unsupervised FSD will be coming to California & Texas next year
- Cybercab will be available for $30K before 2027
- Optimus will be available for $30K
- Robovan is a thing that exists
However, given so many previous promises have been delayed or broken (Roadster 2.0, $40K Cybertruck, $25K Model 2, FSD, etc etc) it's hard to take any of these promises seriously... especially with the complete lack of detail at the launch.
FSD
You can see the FSD promises, with sources, at https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/
It's been 10 years of promises of "next year". I mentioned in my last Tesla post Tesla FSD – by the numbers! that each software release fixes issues but introduces new ones. The number of interventions is extremely high... but the real reason I don't believe Unsupervised FSD will be available in California or Texas next year is because of the legal burden.
Currently autonomous vehicles (Waymo, etc) are legally responsible for any road mishaps.
Currently, with Supervised FSD, the owner/driver is legally responsible for any mishaps.
As soon as Unsupervised FSD is switched on, the legal burden will switch from the vehicle owners to Tesla... and with 2M+ vehicles on the road, I don't think they'll do that until it's perfect in all possible scenarios... and without LiDAR and other sensors I don't think it will ever achieve that.
Here is the video footage of Elon promising FSD year after year : https://www.threads.net/@everyonesayshi1/post/DA-CowUsFKt
Lie to me once, shame on you. Lie to me 11 years straight, shame on me.
Cybercab
I really, really like the look of this vehicle!
The problem is... I don't believe it's actually going to exist.
Is it stainless steel? It looks like it might be... but we know the huge manufacturing problems Tesla has had with the Cybertruck and that even have the sleek curved lines of the Cybercab...
The lack of side mirrors, rearview mirror, brake pedals, hand brake and a steering wheel (Source mean that the Cybercab isn't street legal in the US.
The reason Tesla held the launch party at the WB Studios was because they have private property roads there. From a practical sense... if the Cybercab gets stuck or confused, the lack of a steering wheel and pedals means that there is no way to manually move this vehicle.
It's just pure fantasy.
I don't think I'm the only one who thinks so either.
Clearly investors aren't worried about Cybercabs replacing Uber anytime soon...
I actually didn't know Tesla ever intended to sell these to customers... I thought the plan was for Tesla to run their own Cybercab business similar to Waymo - but given the complete lack of details I'm not sure I believe either will happen.
Elon suggested people might buy multiple Cybercabs to start their own taxi businesses'... but didn't offer any information at all about revenue splits, revenue expectations, timing, anything...
If you remember... Reuters broke the news that Tesla scrapped the $25K Model 2... Elon called them liars and then announced the Cybercab launch for 8/8 which was delayed to 10/10...
... but why isn't the Cybercab the Model 2? Surely it wouldn't have been hard to throw in a steering wheel and pedals. They could have launched it last night and take in literally thousands of preorders. People want cheap EVs and this is a great looking vehicle!
They didn't do it because they can't make this vehicle profitably for $25K, which makes me think it's very unlikely it will actually be available for $30K before 2027... just like the Cybertruck isn't available for $40K (currently only $95K and $115K (Source) are available now).
I couldn't find data on this... but I think from memory every Tesla vehicle was been available way after the initial promised timeline... so I find it extremely hard to believe the cybercab will be mass produced and available for $30K before 2027. They will not be catching up to Waymo anytime soon/maybe ever.
Optimus
Adam Jonas who is an analyst at Morgan Stanley and a massive $TSLA advocate had this to say this morning...
I couldn't tell at the launch party, but I did suspect they were human operated. The robots were surrounded by employees... and I imagine they're pretty heavy, so the chance of someone being injured by one was probably significant.
I have a hard time believing Optimus will be on sale for $30K... nor am I sure it'll be useful for anything much more than a novelty toy.
There was absolutely no information whatsoever on when they might be available, where they're being built, no deposits, no preorders, specifications, battery life, how many might be built in a year, etc etc.
Until there is some actual data available, I can't help but think this is just a fantasy too.
Robovan
I just truly don't believe this will be manufactured in any significant enough numbers to be profitable for Tesla.
I can't imagine this is intended for retail sales.
Maybe I could imagine councils or airports buying them to run people between terminals, but again, with no steering wheel there doesn't seem to be any way to fix issues... especially around airports where its pure chaos and people need all sorts of help.
I just don't see the business case for the Robovan and can't imagine this being a profitable product for Tesla.
Also... the ground clearance does not seem practical. I truly do not think this will be a real thing.
So yeah... I came away from the launch very differently from previous Tesla launches. I think Tesla the company is in big trouble... their earnings call next week I think is going to be bad... and they have a bunch of legal challenges coming up soon. I think this launch was the Hail Mary play and it didn't work.
What did you think? Are you excited about anything in the launch?
Thanks for reading!
Also shared to my hosted blog : https://lifebe.com.au/technology/teslas-cybercab-launch/