The following XAU/USD technical analysis is based on market closing price until the end of last week (April 20, 2018), and is intended as a reference for medium and long term trading.
Gold was hit by a hawkish statement by Fed president Cleveland who was also a member of the FOMC Loretta Mester over the weekend causing the USD index to soar to above the 90 level. US Retail Sales data back in March were positive and above expectations, improved housing data (Building Permits and Housing Starts ), and soaring US bond yields raised speculation of a more aggressive Fed rate hike this year.
Technical review
Daily chart: there is a bearish divergence of the RSI indicator. Strong resistance at 1365.95. Unbreakable this resistance level confirms the correction (bearish) due to the divergence. Strong support is still on the ema curve 55 and the strong resistance at the level of 1356.00 - 1365.95.
The possible continuation of this bearish correction is supported by the price moving below the Bollinger Bands indicator's mid-band curve, and the RSI indicator curve that has been below the 50.0 level (49.33).
Confirm sell if the MACD indicator curve has cut the signal curve (red color) and move below it, and the OSMA histogram line has also been below the 0.00 level.
Weekly pivot level: 1342.03
Resistance : 1341.11 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) ; 1350.14 (level 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) ; 1356.00 ; 1361.63 ; 1365.95 ; 1375.10 ; 1392.04 ; 1416.29 ; 1433.70.
Support : 1333.63 (50% Fibonacci retracement) ; 1326.47 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) ; 1321.63 ; 1317.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement) ; 1307.00 ; 1296.00 ; 1287.00 ; 1275.05 ; 1267.00 ; 1261.00 ; 1252.55 ; 1243.84 ; 1236.40.
Indicator: simple moving average (sma) 200 and ema 55; Bollinger Bands (20,2); MACD (12,26,9); OSMA; RSI (14).
Fibonacci retracement:
Swing point low: 1302.69 (lowest price March 1, 2018)
Swing point high: 1365.10 (highest price April 11, 2018)
Data impacting from the US this week: Advance GDP, CB and UoM consumer confidence index, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, Existing and New Home Sales