BTC Point and Figure and A Look at Yesterday's Bull Div and Where to Close that Long

Point and Figure By moving up into a column of X's we have retraced 50% of the long pole from 11/27. We have formed a new long pole of 16 X's. 50% retrace of this new pole would bring us below $4,032.

Here are the recent long pole of O's, during the crash down from the big wedge, which have not resolved 50%:

9/31/2018: 23 O's, resolves if price moves above $6,901

9/15/2018: 19 O's, resolves if price moves above $5,885

9/20/2018: 29 O's, resolves if price moves above $4,920

It could be a while before we see all 3 resolved, but I would be cautious shorting until at least the third is resolved with a price move above $4,920. Looking at all 3 resolutions relative to the FIB levels from break down from the big wedge, the last of the 3 unresolved poles is the only one likely to retrace, because it is below the 62% FIB:

Here is a look at all the point and figure long pole data I have from the last 2 years: https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/a0r6vq/daily_discussion_tuesday_november_27_2018/ean7now/ TLDR: 80% of poles resolve within the first 3 days, and most a few weeks later. Sometimes they do not resolve: There are 8 unresolved long poles over these last 5 years.

Has been some good days to trade following the break down of the large descending triangle!

Here we look at the resolution of our 12 hour bull div from yesterday Thought this bull div (pink thick lines) was promising because it occurred not just on RSI but on macd, macd histogram, and acc/dist. It did play out nicely. I believe that it is played out now, and thoughts of closing the long should be happening here. I say this because the RSI is very high now and a set up exists for a continuation bear div on the same timeframe that the regular bull div occurred. So where to exit the long? Well I like the area between 23% fib (light blue line) and horizontal level (royal blue line) just above it. This is also the top of our volume profile node (pink box). A good place for resistance. However, its worth noting that this is where you could close a long. I wouldn't open a short here, because if you were to open a short here what would you risk it against? We could continue up all the way to the 62% fib or beyond and retrace those long poles.

Is a 12 hour bull div enough to stop the trend down? No. It only supplied us with some relief from the pain, and it has played out. This trend down is on a weekly timescale. We need to see a bull div on the 3 day or the weekly before we can get excited. A long sideways action (>6 mo) would also be a good sign that the classic boom/bust bubble cycle has come to completion.