Point and Figure We have created a long pole of 21 X's yesterday. A 50% retrace of this pole would bring us to <6,901. 21/60 of the long poles in the last year have been larger than 21 X's. So I would not open a long here but there is still room for upward movement.
Our PnF range is between 6k-7.8k. On the upper end of our range we have a horizontal level on the PnF going back to February. A move above 7,854 would break this level.
We've resolved the long pole of O's from June 10 that I have been going on about for over a month. That means we have every long poles of O's in history of BTC and bears can be bearish again. Fun PnF fact, we have had >170 long poles in the last 9 months and every single one of them have had 50% resolution except our brand new 21 X pole.
So where are the remaining long poles? You need to look way back into the past. A pullback to $4,499 would complete unresolved long pole dating back over 9 months ago and is our next likely long-term target. But after our recent 2-part bull div (big deal! hasnt happened since 2014!) I think we should have enough upward momentum to not see <5k too soon. First we need to retest resistance levels.
I've been talking about resistance between 7,500-8,100 for over 2 weeks now. Looks like we are finally coming up to touch on this resistance level. We've already gone above 7.5k 3 times (for about 5 minutes each). Most likely place for our bull rally to fail is between 7.7k-8.1k. There is opportunity for shorting in that range.
Lets take a look at my messy daily chart If we move above 8.1k and break the thick green trendline here I would be cautious with longs. The key higher high is far from the trendline break and there are two major FIB levels between the trendline break and the key higher high. This is labeled and I draw a long-term short opportunity that can be taken below the key higher high. We might not get this short opportunity but if we do, it will be much better risk:reward than shorting our 7.7k-8.1k resistance level.