Not long ago it was clear that the stock market and the crypto markets shared a strong correlation. Apart from one's own technical analysis of whatever strategy you follow you could use this correlation to forecast immediate weakness or recovery, which could be taken as even more of a reason to take a trade you were already eyeing.
Now this correlation has changed and has turned into a different grouping altogether. I am giving credit to the amazing Mr. Francis Hunt who speaks of the "Anti-Fiats" out there, namely precious metals and cryptos like Bitcoin.
Because Gold is the mother of all anti-fiats it has been a leading "indicator" of Bitcoin's impending moves. The anti-fiats seem to run together and sometimes these past weeks it was the case that you could get an early warning of a crypto pullback or pump simply by looking at the gold chart in advance.
Put gold on your trading list or insert it as a comparison into your btc chart in order to gauge the strength of the crypto market until that correlation breaks.
From the looks of it it is very unlikely to see BTC reach new highs if gold is potentially still in a bear flag of a downmove before continuing the rally upwards.
The moment gold reverses on the macro to the upside I will be getting back into crypto as best as I can. Until then expect more pullback in crypto as the god markets of the anti-fiats (gold and btc) take a breather while the traditional stock market moves higher still. This will only be temporary though as in all likelihood, we are nearing the end of the fiat lifecycle and the insanely overpriced stocks of Amazon, Facebook and the like.
Timing is everything. Don't FOMO! But do look for the correlation in gold. When gold recovers you will have a little bit of time to take a crypto position before the ascend.
Also take note that BTC may still have to pull back further than gold already has. How far and if this is the case at all though: nobody can say for sure.
On the other hand, there might be a case that the gold pullback has already turned into a reversal, forming a bull flag on the hourly at the moment that could break up any moment, early. If this were true it would mean that BTC and the crypto markets might move up once more once a good setup has been formed. If the gold reversal flag takes longer it would mean it would break down and turn into a larger descending channel before reversing on the macro.
Whatever may happen: Gold will likely be the key. Anti-fiats stick together ;)
