I've never seen the market like this. As I looked over Bitcoin charts towards the end of 2025 I could see the breakdown coming. I didn't want to believe it. I didn't believe it. It was obvious to anyone that was paying attention though, bitcoin was pumping and alts with the exception of a few memecoins and couple decent projects really weren't. There has always been a correlation between bitcoin pumps and alt season. The minor pump we had was far from an alt-season. I don't even think the CMC alt-season indicator ever went over 40.
Now we have a serious bitcoin crash and it's looking pretty obvious. The breakdown of the market cycle is here. We've passed my orange line in the sand. If we fall below $60K, I'll be expecting to wait it out until the next market cycle. That's a lot of bags to hold for probably quite some time.
Excuse the messy chart but I've been trading on this chart for the last 6 months. That double orange line was my line in the sand. The redline along the bottom of the chart around $65K range is what I consider my point of no return. We hit that and fall through, this market cycle is officially over in my humble opinion.
Bitcoin has fallen close to 50% in just under 6 months time. I did some AI research on this and here's what it said.
AI Research Brave Browser
When was Bitcoins ATH.
Bitcoin's most recent All-Time High (ATH) was reached on August 14, 2025, when the price surged to $124,128. This marked the highest price Bitcoin has ever achieved in its trading history, driven by sustained institutional adoption, broader market confidence, and a mature regulatory environment.
Earlier notable ATHs include:
December 5, 2024: $103,900 (supported by Bitcoin ETF approvals and increasing institutional interest).
November 10, 2021: $69,044 (during the 2020–2021 bull market).
December 16, 2017: $19,665 (following the ICO boom).
November 29, 2013: $1,242 (first major ATH, fueled by media attention and FOMO).
The 2025 ATH reflects Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory, with its market capitalization reaching approximately $2.4 trillion at the time, based on around 19.9 million BTC in circulation.
End Ai Research
That's close to a 50% drop in just under 6 months. The last time this happened was end of 2021 going into 2022. That was the end of the last bull cycle.
More Brave browser ai: November 2021 to November 2022: Bitcoin experienced a 78% decline from about $69,000 to below $16,000—a drop exceeding 50% over roughly 12 months.
May–November 2022: Bitcoin fell 50% from roughly $32,000 to below $16,000, part of the broader 2022 bear market
Anyone that was around then, knows what came next. As far as I'm concerned this market cycle is over. I'm really pissed at myself for not paying attention to the data. I seen it, yet did nothing, and even bought more alts against my better judgement. I just couldn't believe that was the alt season or lack thereof that we were experiencing.
It's not uncommon for this to happen. We continually say to ourselves, "This time it's different" yet it never is. The difference here is that Wall St. entered the space and many people were judging the end of this cycle by when the institutional guys began selling. Judging from the news today, I'm guessing that day has come with the exception of Michael Saylor and a few others.
Will we recover. At this point, I'm doubtful. Again, "This time it's different" just doesn't sit well with me. I don't think it is. The difference is, the Wall St. guys that don't sell are going to look really foolish tying up all that capital and having to wait on the next big market cycle. Then the question arises, will their investors allow it, or demand they sell to free up capital thus driving the market down further. At this point, I'm convinced this market cycle will end in a proper mess.
Bitcoin has dropped over 50% several other times too. The quick recoveries come from Black Swan events. After a bull market, it usually indicates the end of the market cycle and the very beginning of crypto winter.
AI Data Brave Browser:
May 2021: Bitcoin dropped approximately 50% from around $58,000 to $30,000 within six months, driven by Tesla’s withdrawal from Bitcoin, China’s mining crackdown, and environmental concerns.
November 2021 to November 2022: Bitcoin experienced a 78% decline from about $69,000 to below $16,000—a drop exceeding 50% over roughly 12 months.
May–November 2022: Bitcoin fell 50% from roughly $32,000 to below $16,000, part of the broader 2022 bear market.
These historical crashes highlight Bitcoin’s high volatility, with sharp corrections often occurring during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory crackdowns, or loss of institutional confidence.
End AI
Here's where we are currently at. Fear and greed index at an 11 🤣 Altcoin season indicator is far below the 75 we really need for a proper alt season. The only good news is the crypto RSI is extremely oversold. When the bulls step in to buy the dip is anybody's guess at this point. You're going to have to be brave to enter here.
Two weeks ago I funded an account with $100. I researched my picks, looked over the charts, and liked my entries. Two weeks later I'm down 50%. That's never happened to me before at that level. Until I see some consolidation in the charts I think I'm sitting on my hands.
I was planning on funding the account with $1K but had trouble transferring around funds from my US exchanges. They're turning into a real pain in the ass. A story for another day. Love the security, hate the bullshit!
Everything happens for a reason though, had I tossed $1K up and watched it dwindle to $500 or $600, I'd be pretty sick about it. This was my cautionary trade that really opened my eyes. I also need to start trading with a stop loss. In the past I just sold my leftover bags during the next big market cycle. It doesn't look like that's going to work anymore.
When trading, you have to constantly change your strategies as the markets change. Those that don't die a slow painful death. The markets are changing with the addition of the Wall St folks. Hopefully it is different this time and we see another nice bounce followed by a proper alt season.
Final Thoughts.
This thing is cooked. The dishes are done! If you didn't fill your plate and take some gains, you're going hungry. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm extremely bearish at this point. I just don't see this thing turning around.
If we don't see a major turnaround before $60k, I fear crypto winter is coming and we return to a long drawn out bear market that completely decimates alts. Frankly, for the first time in my trading career since 2017, I'm actually concerned. This looks bad.
My only strategy at this point is hoping for a dead cat bounce so I can exit a couple positions I opened late.
I'll leave you with the BTC weekly chart. You can see the highlighted almost double top , another indicator this thing is cooked. I remember looking at this back in December and questioning whether that was the top or not. Now I'm convinced and really mad at myself for not paying better attention.
This time it was different. We didn't get a proper alt season :( Hopefully I'm wrong about that. If I'm right, I'm going to have to figure out what that means as a trader. It's time to change things up a bit.