https://x.com/0xGumshoe/status/1977415771879072045
Oh look I learned a new acronym!
I love them abbreviations that spells words.
They're so fancy.
Apparently Trump has done this so many times that Trump Always Chickens Out is now a known phrase in circulation? Wild. But for me it isn't really chickening out so much as it is obvious insider trading. Is their proof of such a crime? I mean not really but there isn't any other reason to purposefully create volatile panics over and over again like this unless your cronies are in on the poop-and-scoop action.
https://x.com/edict3d/status/1976768541446881436
Spoiler alert: my long is in the red.
I'm down like $170 on the Bitcoin long I took out on October 9th. Position is still open. This might sound weird but I stand by that bet fiercely. I think it was a really good bet. The chart looked amazing. We are in the middle of a full moon cycle. It's Q4 2025. There are a lot of reasons to be bullish right now. If you go all in with the best hand in poker and lose; you didn't make a mistake; you just got unlucky. That's something that happens a lot more often than most people seem to realize. Good bets can easily lose and bad bets can easily win. Judging the merits of a bet in retrospect based on a single outcome is a fool's errand.
Of course this is another classic example as to why we should never be leverage trading on anything but Bitcoin. I'm seeing all over crypto twitter that people have lost everything and there are rumors of suicides taking place? I had no idea that so many people had 100% of their net worth on leverage when the market sentiment isn't even close to euphoric. A certain part of me wants to call bullshit on these engagement farmers but I'd rather not run the risk of speaking ill of the dead.
Obviously Hive got absolutely rampaged and we've since cratered to rank #620 according to Coingecko. How many sats is one Hive worth now? Let's see... 125! Yikes! Shame I don't have a bunch of extra Bitcoin laying around to scoop some of this up but I lost too much to that whole Thorchain insolvency debacle. I'm sure a lot of us are feeling the squeeze at this point.
It's pretty not great that Hive continues to print "dollars" out of thin air at a constant rate even with a market cap this low. The haircut on HBD doesn't even begin to kick in until Hive reaches 5 cents or less, which is clearly a pretty bleak prospect. Perhaps we'll have another round of bickering about all the money being spent on the DHF and HBD savings accounts.
https://x.com/TedPillows/status/1977008564553064495
Massive liquidation event
It's kind of hard to believe that something like this could happen just by Trump blabbing his mouth... but then again if we just make the obvious assumption that Trump cronies are insider trading and they've taken a significant interest in crypto... not difficult to see how such a thing could happen. Others still say this crash was pretty predictable on the Chinese side because the moves they've been making clearly prompted a response from the USA.
Bitcoin is officially risk-off
Looking at what Bitcoin did and what everything else did confirms to me that Bitcoin isn't much of a risk-on asset anymore. It dipped to around $103k which is the exactly place I've been saying for months we need to lookout for. The liquidation heatmap clearly showed there was nothing to liquidate in the $100k-$103k range, which is why I was so convinced that leveraged longs with a liquidation below $100k were relatively safe bets. I won't be closing this long until late November so it will be interesting to see how much I actually gain or lose when it comes time to settle.
So what's the chart look like?
Still... weirdly bullish for Bitcoin. Trading right back along with all the major moving averages. Leverage has been 100% flushed... that's for sure. If we were grinding near $100k it would look quite bad, but instead we've only given back a couple weeks of bullish action. I will say that I'm annoyed that such a sweet bull flag was unceremoniously murdered by such a seemingly unpredictable event, but Q4 is quite young we still have a lot of runway to go.
Conclusion
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Trump is clearly insider trading, and it's working quite well. His influence on the market is a thing of legend because people believe he's stupid enough to do the stupid things he says he's going to do. Even now that TACO is a thing... the market still reacts just the same. Predictable cowardice.
It should go without saying that crypto hasn't lost one dime of actual value because Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. This is all noise and can't be taken seriously. This was a huge shakeout and all the leverage is gone. If we are still in a bull market, which I have to assume we are, it's hard to imagine much more pain coming our way within the current environment. He said ominously.