As the dust starts to settle the big picture emerges of what has happened in Syria.
I set out the background and timeline in detail in my previous post.
Now it's time to look forward and at the bigger picture and update in light of further developments.
This is not a victory for Turkey as many commentators are saying.
It is an own goal and an abject lesson in the dangers of using proxy forces to attempt to achieve strategic aims.
I will set out in detail why this is the case.
New Developments
But first some important new developments in the last 2 days.
1. Israel's capture of Mount Hermon
IDF forces captured the entire Mt Hermon, including the 2812m peak.
Israel previously held the southern slope to 2000m and recently took part of the western slope in its ground incursion into Lebanon. But the peak is the real prize.
https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1865867718576033945
Capturing the peak of Mt Hermon is a hugely significant and strategic achievement by the IDF.
This map shows the visual line of sight (LOS) and slightly longer radio / radar LOS from the 2812m high peak of Mt Hermon.
Israel is much safer today as it can now see drones and missiles launched against it from the north and east far earlier.
It can see and strike hostile forces in Lebanon and Syria from this immense height.
Mount Hermon is the tallest mountain between the Nile and the Euphrates and has a nice flat domed peak suitable for building a huge intelligence gathering / observation / firepower base.
2. Israel's demilitarisation of Syria
While Assad's 700,000 strong army had collapsed like a house of cards, they left behind huge amounts of military equipment: naval vessels, fighter jets, helicopters, air defence systems, tanks, APCs, AFVs artillery, surface to surface missiles, chemical weapons and their production facilities.
Given the Islamist HTS rebels close links to ISIS, it could be very problematic for the Syrian people, Israel and the region if this equipment fell into their hands and they were able to use it.
So over the last 2 days and continuing as I write, Israel has launched over 300 airstrikes to destroy this equipment.
Israel is effectively demilitarising its oldest enemy state, just as the US did to Germany and Japan after their defeat in WW2.
https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1866244441897345353
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1866400449865101568
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1866415852159201496
When Israel is finished Syria will have no heavy weaponry and will cease to present a conventional military threat to Israel or anyone else. It will join Lebanon, Gaza & Sinai as demilitarised zones on Israel's border. Iraq has also been substantially demilitarised by the US and Jordan has only a very small amount of heavy military equipment.
This not only protects Israel from attack but establishes Israel as the only conventional military power between Turkey, the Suez Canal and Iran.
And it is charitable to call Iran a conventional military power as it has no modern airforce, armoured forces or artillery and has recently lost its air defences. So really Israel is the only serious conventional military power all the way east to Pakistan.
3. Israel's capture of the Demilitarised Zone with Syria
After the 1973 Yom Kippur War there was a ceasefire agreement called the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement (1974 SFA) with the Assad Regime which established a Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) between Israel and Syria on the Golan Heights.
You can see this area between the right most orange lines on the map below. The left hand orange lines are 1948 ceasefire lines and the land between is the Israeli Golan Heights (annexed by Israel in 1981 and recognised by the USA in 2019 during First Trump Administration).
With the fall of the Assad Regime, rebel forces violation of the 1974 SFA by attacks within the DMZ and over a year of attacks on Israel from within Syria (by Iranian proxies), Israel has declared the 1974 SFA a dead letter and has occupied the entire DMZ.
The IDF has denied that it has entered Syria proper, although the situation is fluid and may change.
4. Mixed Kurdish Gains and Losses
While much of the attention has been on the gains of the Islamist HTS, the Kurds (SDF) have made extensive gains in central eastern Syria, crossing the Euphrates and capturing Deir Ez-Zor and into the Syrian desert.
https://x.com/nadinemaenza/status/1865755692029894943
On the other hand the Kurds have, after 2 weeks of fierce fighting, suffered the loss of Manbij, east of Alleppo to Turkish backed SNA forces (which include former ISIS members).
https://x.com/deSyracuse/status/1866372049163501743
The SDF took Manbij from ISIS only one year ago, so likely had not had time to prepare heavy defences.
Turkey's motivation and strategic failure.
Many commentators are seeing the fall of Assad to Turkish backed HTS and SNA militias as a major victory for Turkey And Erdogan.
However this is a superficial analysis that misses the big picture of what Turkey was actually trying to achieve.
It is important to understand Turkey and Erdogan's interests.
1. Stopping a Kurdish State
Turkey has an over-riding national interest to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish State in Syria and Iraq.
This is because such a State would very likely cause the 15-20M Kurds in Turkey (17.5 - 23.5% of population), who are the majority in the eastern parts bordering Syria and Iraq, to join with this Kurdish State, thus splitting Turkey in two.
Erdogan has a huge medium term problem because the Kurdish birthrate is 3x (TRF 3+) that of ethnic Turks (TFR 1.0). This means that in a few decades ethnic Kurds will outnumber ethnic Turks in Turkey.
https://x.com/nonebusinesshey/status/1790641170437255439
While the Kurdish PKK group has engaged in terrorism inside Turkey, this issue is not about fighting terror, but instead about preserving ethnic Turkish pre-eminence in Turkey and the territorial integrity of Turkey itself.
2. Supporting the Muslim Brotherhood
Erdogan is a Sunni Islamist who is aligned with the global Muslim Brotherhood.
Hamas is also Sunni Islamist group which is part of the global Muslim Brotherhood.
This is why Erdogan has protested so loudly against Israel's defeat of Hamas in Gaza and has accuses Israel of exactly the genocide that he is attempting against the Kurds.
HTS is also a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood organisation. This is why Turkey supported HTS.
ISIS is also a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood organisation which is partly why Turkey is supporting the SNA, which comprises ex ISIS members and others. But Turkey does not like the craziness or bad press that ISIS's brutality generates, so keeps its distance.
While both HTS and SNA have been supported by Turkey, HTS is far more independent and focussed on overthrowing Assad while the SNA has focussed on attacking the Kurds.
The purpose of Turkey's support of the rebels (HTS & SNA)
The purpose of Turkey's support for HTS and SNA was to advance Turkey's goals of pushing back the Kurds and also Erdogan's goals of advancing the Muslim Brotherhood.
Turkey's goal was to re-ignite the Syrian Civil War so that SNA could attack Kurds under the cover of general chaos.
Turkey's goal was NOT to overthrow the Assad regime. Turkey's only real gripe with Assad was that he had come to an accommodation with the Kurds in eastern Syria and had allowed them autonomy.
It was certainly NOT Erdogan's goal to create an immense strategic victory for his arch enemy Bibi.
Turkey's Own Goal
What happened is that HTS was far too successful and independent minded and Assad's military collapsed like a house of cards without Hizbollah giving it backbone.
1. More Kurdish Territory
The end result has been far greater territory for the Kurds - precisely the opposite of what Erdogan wanted.
Even with the loss of Manbij (a recent Kurd acquisition) the Kurds have come out well ahead in the overall picture. Moreover, the extremely hard fought nature of SNA's conquest of Manbij and the brutalities it has engaged in make further gains very hard both tactically and in terms of risking US or Israeli intervention to protect the Kurds
2. HTS support for ethnic autonomy
Even worse, HTS's leader has announced support for decentralisation of Syria and autonomy for ethnic groups. This is the opposite of what Turkey wanted because it further strengthens Kurdish autonomy. Reportedly Erdogan is furious and has cut off HTS funding. But it is too late.
3. Israeli freedom of action and US backed support for Kurds
The worst outcome and a strategic disaster for Erdogan is Israel's demilitarisation of Syria and promise to protect the Druze and Kurds.
What many people do not know is that Syria had the densest air defence system in the world, created by the Russians. It was getting a bit old and Israel had been able to get around it on special occasions but it still presented a big obstacle to the IAF.
Now the IAF has complete freedom of action over Syria. If it wants to bomb the SNA to protect the Kurds, it can.
If it wants to impose a no-fly zone over northern Syria, it can. Turkey's airforce is no match for the IAF and Erdogan knows it.
If Israel wants to supply weaponry to the Kurds, it can. The masses of sophisticated Russian, Chinese and Iranian sourced weapons that the IDF captured from Hizbollah can be supplied untraceably to the Kurds.
Equally important is that Israel is now making public statements about protecting the Kurds, something that was only talked about privately and unofficially before.
[UPDATE: Israel's Foreign Minister has officially warned Syrian rebels not to attack the Kurds.]
https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1866427898401558904
In this Israel is getting strong support from the US, particularly Republicans and incoming Trump Administration officials. The Kurds hold 50,000 ISIS prisoners and the US is concerned to prevent them breaking out due to attacks on the Kurds. There is also increasing international sympathy for the Kurds, especially given how crucial they were in the fight against ISIS.
4. Real Risk of Israeli & US support for Kurdish State
Israel's policy regarding the Kurds is still developing, but there is a real risk (to Turkey) that Israel and/or the US will come to see the establishment of a Kurdish state splitting Syria, Iraq, Iran and perhaps Turkey as a national interest. Given Erdogan's appalling verbal attacks and trade embargoes on Israel over Gaza, this would be massive payback.
A major pro-US pro-Israel state splitting up problematic hostile states, controlling major oil supplies and perhaps with territorial continuity with a Druze / Christian statelet on Israel's Golan border would be a very good outcome for Bibi and Trump.
If this was to happen Erdogan's only option would be support a negotiated Kurdish State excluding Turkish territory with Turkish Kurds moving there.
A disaster for Erdogan and a Huge Strategic Win for Israel
All this adds up to a disastrous own goal for Erdogan and a huge win for his nemesis, Bibi.
Machiavelli warned princes to rely on their own arms and not those of proxies or foreigners.
Just as Iran had its entire multi-decade global strategy wrecked by Hamas jumping the gun and attacking Israel on Oct 7, so has Erdogan had his strategy wrecked by relying on too successful and too independent proxies.
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