UFC215: Johnson v Borg
Right off the top let me start by saying this is a really weak PPV card. This should be a FOX card, at best. Still, I’m excited for it. Demetrious Johnson is the P4P king (pointless term really but he’s the best). It’s a shame he doesn’t get more media attention because he’s really well spoken and so skilled; he really should get the hype Conor does. Doesn’t help he’s a 125lb, nerdy dude however.
This nerdy, gamer dude is going to style on Ray Borg. A Ray Borg who’s being rushed into title contention due to a lack of contenders Mighty Mouse hasn’t already beaten. The best bet on this fight is DJ by KO or Submission at 2.00/+100. I don’t see Borg being able to implement anything of any note and DJ, who despite contrary belief is a finisher. I’d be surprised if Borg lasted 25 minutes here.
Nunes v Shevchenko
Co-Main event is Nunes v Shevchenko. Nunes pulled out of a fight not so long ago with nasal & breathing issues. This won’t help her cardio at all. If ‘Bullet’ survives the first 5-7 minutes she’ll take over from there. I think Shevchenko has the skills to take this deep and get a late finish or a 4 rounds to 1 decision. It wouldn’t hurt to watch the first round to live-bet Shevchenko after R1 as I suspect she will lose the first round but I’m on her pre-fight at 1.91/-110 and pretty happy about it.
Ngannou v Dos Santos (cancelled)
Junior Dos Santos was removed from the card for a suspected failed test. He was coming back from a KO loss too early anyway but I hope they get to re-book this fight soon. He’s a great test for the surging Ngannou who I’m not sure is ready for a title fight just yet.
Dos Anjos v Magny
Rafael Dos Anjos v Neil Magny is a good scrap. Magny will have a huge reach advantage but like Struve last weekend struggles to use it. RDA had a tailor made match up for him last time out v Saffiedene but this one won’t be so easy. Magny is sitting at 2.65/+165 which is surprising given his size advantage but I can’t pull the trigger here. I don’t blame anyone for betting Magny in this one though!
Pedro v Latifi
I really like this fight. Pedro is so green and beaten 2 pretty ordinary fighters so far in Paul Craig and Khalil Roundtree but this is a good fight for him. He’ll have a big height and reach advantage but Latifi is strong as an ox and could take control with that. Latifi also has solid takedown defence so Pedro will need to use his striking more to win this one. Something we’ve never really seen him do (Craig doesn’t count. I’d beat him standing). My pick here is Latifi but no bets. Pedro is so young he could have improved out of sight training at Jacksons for the last 2 camps.
Stephens v Melendez
There are so many question marks over this fight. This is Melendez’ first fight at 145, coming off a PED suspension v Stephens who’s looked OK but is still only 2-5 in his last 7. Only wins over Barao and Bermudez who are both prone to choking/folding. It’s a pass for me but my pick is Stephens. Keep an eye on the weigh ins though; if Melendez looks bad on the scales, Stephens should win the striking and therefor a decision.
Prelims
There isn’t much else I like here really. Adriano Martins should steamroll Johnson but I don’t like playing -400 lines. He is most likely parlay fodder if you want to use him. Rick Glenn at 3.00/+200 is surprising but he’s very slow on the feet. Tucker should be able to counter pretty easy and use his speed to win but he’s too expensive to bet.
Official bets
Johnson ITD – 2.00/+100 (1 unit)
Shevchenko – 1.91/-110 (1 unit)
Strong lean on Latifi. Probably worth a bet but I’m passing
Last event went 1-0 on Bahadurzada for +1U