Western Mainstream Narrative
So if you follow the mainstream western narrative on Ukraine the situation is this:
- Russian forces are "bogged down" and being destroyed by heroic Ukrainian resistance using Javelin missiles and have suffered enormous losses (1000s of vehicles and 5000 men);
- The Russian economy is being destroyed by extremely harsh sanctions;
- A no-fly zone over Ukraine imposed by NATO is likely;
- Russia is going to have to capitulate and the "madman" Putin will be overthrown.
The thinking behind this is "The West" can just crush Russia (like it crushed Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam etc).
In pursuit of this thinking, every taboo and red line has been trashed:
- Germany, Netherlands and others supplying weapons to one side in a war zone (an act of war);
- the EU personally sanctioning national leaders (an act of war);
- Switzerland abandoning its historic neutrality;
- Finland abandoning its neutrality and asking to join NATO (another Russian red line);
- US & EU excluding Russia from SWIFT.
So let us follow this line of logic to its ultimate conclusion.
A "madman" who has made bringing Ukraine back into Russian orbit a do or die issue faces overthrow and Russian surrender to become another Western colony like Ukraine was.
So what does a madman who controls 6000 nuclear warheads (the world's largest arsenal) who faces an existential threat to his beloved nation and himself do?
He uses them to nuke every military installation and city in the US and Europe and destroy "The West" on the basis that if Russia is not in the world, then the world might as well cease to exist.
These are the words of a Russian mainstream news figure who is well known as a Putin mouthpiece.
The Sun says he is "deranged". If he is then this is even more reason to be concerned.
However it is actually quite rational to decide to take everybody else with you if your own existence is threatened.
Remember for the last 20 years "the experts" have said invasions of countries and large scale armored warfare couldn't happen in Europe.
These same people are saying there is no risk of nuclear war.
So if you follow the mainstream Western narrative to its logical conclusion then US, Europe and (probably) Russia face nuclear mutually assured destruction (MAD). Putin is the ultimate suicide bomber.
Even worse, because the West does not seem to be taking Putin's threats seriously and has not put its own nuclear forces on high alert it is possible that Russia could launch a first strike that would disable or limit the West's second strike capability so that some of Russia (the largest country in the world) could survive.
Fortunately, the mainstream Western narrative is complete BS.
The reality is:
- Russia is professionally and methodically taking over Ukraine having faced no effective resistance from the Ukrainian military (who, despite months of warning failed to mine the roads, prepared bridge for blowing, build tank traps and generally prepare border defences against invasion).
- Every day Russia takes more ground and cities are beginning to fall.
- Russia controls the skies, the roads and the sea. Nothing can get in or out without Russian say so.
- Sanctions are hurting Russia, but they are also hurting the West and benefiting China.
Lets talk about sanctions
If you believe that free and open trade between nations produces economic benefit for both sides, then sanctions that cut off that trade must by definition harm both sides. If the trade relationship was equally beneficial then the economic damage will be equal on both sides.
If a lot of countries are sanctioning a small and economically insignificant country like North Korea then the economic pain on one side is spread over a large economic base, and thus is barely felt, while the small country feels major pain.
It is notable however that even with sanctions on North Korea, Iran, Venezuela etc, they have not brought about regime change or made them change their behavior.
But when a large, economically very significant nation like Russia is sanctioned the situation is very different:
- The sanctioning countries feel major economic pain as their most cost effective access to critical resources (gas, oil, fertilizer, essential metals) is cut off and prices skyrocket ($200 oil here we come). This drives major inflation that causes real increases in prices for consumers and businesses in the sanctioning countries. Many manufacturing businesses may become uneconomic and close. Consumer and social unrest grows.
- The sanctioned country sells its resources to other large non-sanctioning countries (eg China & India) at a discount to market price which may still be higher than prices before the sanctions (eg Russia is selling oil to India and China at a $15 discount to the $115 market price - it is still making much more money than earlier this year when oil was $60).
- The sanctioned country may suffer massive external currency devaluation, but if it is substantially self sufficient (as Russia is) then the actual impact on everyday life for people whose earning and spending is all in local currency is minimal. After the initial shock consumer and social unrest subsides (or is suppressed).
- the non-sanctioning countries benefit enormously from access to cheaper resources than their competitors in the sanctioning countries.
But it gets worse ...
Many economists say that the root cause of WWI and WWII was German manufacturing production surplus and the desire to "capture" its markets. Indeed the EU has provided Germany with this market capture in a peaceful way.
As I've noted in my earlier post and in this detailed analysis by Scott Ritter , NATO is extremely weak in Europe and is unable to defend against the sort of large scale combined arms warfare that Russia has demonstrated it is capable of in Ukraine.
(Scott Ritter is the same guy who exposed the Bush administration's Iraq WMD claims as BS)
In case you don't understand military nomenclature here is a quick summary:
3 Brigades + Artillery regiment = 1 Division
3 Divisions = 1 Corps
2-3 Corps = 1 Army.
Russia is deploying two Armies against Ukraine while NATO can barely deploy one Division. It has one "Ready Reaction" Brigade. Do the math.
So if sanctions ARE really biting Russia, there is a major incentive for Russia to send its tank Armies to invade Poland, Germany, The Netherlands and Belgium (across the flat northern European plain) and secure these markets. By taking control of the governments of these nations it would effectively control the EU and could remove sanctions without having to fight nuclear armed France or the UK.
With Turkey an unreliable NATO member which is surrounded North and South by Russian forces, the rest of NATO has no chance of defending Europe given current force levels, lack of operational readiness and training in high intensity warfare.
The West's Double Catch 22
Thus the West is in a double Catch 22 which it seems not to be even aware of:
- If Russia is failing militarily in Ukraine and you continue to hurt it with extreme sanctions then you risk nuclear war;
- If Russia is succeeding militarily in Ukraine and you continue to hurt it with extreme sanctions then you risk a conventional armoured invasion of Western Europe.
- Sanctions will hurt The West badly and benefit China (an equal or greater threat to The West).
The Only way out of this mess
The only way out of this mess is to accept that Ukraine is lost, end sanctions, reinforce the hell out of Poland and massively strengthen NATO force, readiness and training levels.
Germany's increase of defence spending from 1.4% to over 2% of GDP is a step in the right direction but much more needs to be done, including shipping multiple US divisions to Europe ASAP.
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