The article is written - 15th June 2015 / original link - https://ladoch.blogspot.com/2015/06/attack-on-ukraine-is-unavoidable-only.html
If we observe the Russian media for the past two days, “exacerbations” on “information war front”, as Russians usually say, along with another escalation on the Ukraine front, have happened quite simultaneously.
Factual situation is that they hardly try to disguise such “operations” in Kremlin. Though neither Brussels, nor Washington is naively diplomatic and they clearly state their reaction regarding possible development scenarios!
Therefore, the first thing to be observed in Russian media is how aggressive are the ideas they develop and, afterwards, implement them. Physical influence on Ukrainian front is always simultaneous with aggression broadcasted through propagandist channels. This regularity of Russian propaganda has remained unchanged for almost whole century! From this point of view, Russian media has another feature – propagandist line is drawn in every single segment of information field, from state to sectarian web-pages and forums! Russian segment of internet is occupied by Russian religious and pseudo scientific groups. “Official” information source of ordinary inhabitant is fully occupied by main propagandist agency. Therefore, imagine the scale of possibilities for transmitting the aggressive idea and Russian reality. When religious agency and its head with relevant influence, though with the rating lower than of Zhirinovski, as a religious leader of majority of the country, also having influence on various confessional domestic organizations, stands together with officials! – What kind of ideology will a citizen living in such environment have?
Considering all of the above, after observing only today’s Russian media, it will be easy to notice their plan, e. g. how the events of the past two days have been interpreted: http: ( Marinka showed the inevitability of a new war - http://rusvesna.su/recent_opinions/1433457508 ) / ( The LNR considered putting peacekeepers contrary to the agreements Minsk - https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3481446-v-rossyy-y-respublykakh-nehatyvno-otneslys-k-ydee-s-myrotvortsamy ). The given articles are a summed up expression of those short information messages that are transmitted though Russian propagandist channels both inside and outside the country and wholly cover post-soviet segment of information consumers. What about perception of future by Russians, the articles given below reflect the expectations that are formed among Russian population - (The Cuban missile crisis the contrary: whether Putin "click"? - http://forum-msk.org/material/news/10854936.html ) / ( The attack on the Tiraspol will Kotovsk! - http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/124212/ ).
The date has to be determined when the phase of escalation of the above mentioned circumstances is possible.
What about this issue, there is one very important detail to be considered. On June 25-26, Euro Union summit will be held, where they will decide whether to continue sanctions against Russia or not and according to the existing data, new sanctions might be added to the applicable ones because of stubbornness and aggressiveness of Russia. This factor is the one which Putin might try to affect and get some benefits from aggravation on Ukrainian front. It’s hard to tell what benefit Putin will get, he might be only demonstrating his firm position… Nobody might know this for real except the ones around the negotiation table! Though, it can be said that before every diplomatic event, Russian army aggravated the situation in Ukraine and now we see the same.
Another very important fact should be noted which was observed by the whole world – this was 9th of May and those strengthening of Soviet nostalgia that Russians showed. Symbolisms and slogans used on this holiday, that exactly match ideology of the “Donbass rebels” – conquer Berlin, Brussels, etc., don’t leave any optimism and reinforces my doubts that Soviet symbolisms in today’s Russian reality have gained special, i.e. sacral meaning. Accordingly, for similar aggravation June 22 is just “perfect” – 3 days before Euro Union summit, the day of beginning the WW2 for the Soviet Union, which I’m sure is also celebrated in Russia and will be used for another propagandist “bombing” in the best scenario! That communist-orthodox aggravation might reach its peak of aggression exactly on June 22 because of these factors, while as we see, Putin pays particular attention to the dates symbolic for Soviet Union and it is possible that motivated by the prejudice of the past success, he might do something stupid that will have no justification, no matter how Russian nation tries!