Earlier this year, I was convinced the US plan for Israeli-Palestinian talks would never be published. The timing is terrible and the impact of another failed initiative could be disastrous given the heightened tensions and multiple conflicts in the region. But Donald Trump has other ideas.
Jared Kushner, who is leading the project for his father in law, insists the plan will be released within weeks. He has promised surprises and warned that both sides will face tough compromises. Sources consulted by the US team believe it will be a detailed and lengthy document.
US, Israeli and Arab media have been churning out stories for months hanging on every word from Kushner, Jason Greenblatt the Middle East envoy and US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman. But credit where its due to this tight knit team, in a dysfunctional White House, little has leaked out. This is largely because they haven’t involved the officials and experts at their disposal. One senior State Department official recently refused to answer any questions about the plan because he hadn’t seen it.
When Trump was elected in 2016, Israeli and Palestinian leaders were far away from a convergence of interests that merited reigniting fresh negotiations. Obama and Kerry had tried and failed in 2014. There was no sense of possibility for a new round of talks, but Trump promised to have a crack at what he called ‘the deal of the century’. Perhaps it was the allure of succeeding where Obama failed, or maybe he really believes it’s just a real estate deal cursed by inept lawyers.
The US plan is expected to be published in mid-June, after Ramadan, Shavuot and when the new Israeli Government is in place. In the final week of the Israeli election campaign Benjamin Netanyahu won over radical right-wing voters by promising to apply Israeli law to all Israeli settlements in the West Bank. His potential coalition partners support the move and oppose dismantling illegal outposts or ceding territory to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
The PA has boycotted the US administration since it moved its embassy to Jerusalem and cut funding to UNRWA, the agency that supports seven million Palestinian refugees and their descendants. PA President Mahmoud Abbas says he will reject the US plan, expecting it to offer nothing for the Palestinians.