It is no secret, for anyone with their eyes open, that major geopolitical and economic changes are rapidly taking place and the United States is in serious decline, losing is place as Global Hegemon or Policeman (depending on your perspective).
The real game of Civilisation moves on.
The End of US Global Hegemony
While Biden's Presidency has been particularly disastrous (rout in Afghanistan, tyrannous, destructive COVID-19 policies, massive state sponsored censorship, failure of Russia sanctions, failure of US weapons in Ukraine, record debt, massive money printing, rapid dedollarisation, flight of innovative crypto companies from the US etc etc), the core problems are long standing and the entire ruling class on both sides of US politics is responsible.
We are witnessing the end of the uni-polar world or Pax Americana, as its supporters would call it. Forever Wars, 4.5 million dead from US interventions in other countries since 9/11 and atrocious degradation of public morality and civilisational values from US "soft power" would suggest that Pox Americana is the more appropriate term.
The US also is experiencing serious demographic decline with the worst total fertility rate (TFR) it has ever experienced: 1.66 births per woman. This is a very rapid fall from the replacement level TFR of 2.1 it had as recently as 2007.
The end of The End of History
The return to a multi-polar world is, in many ways, a return to historical normality. For almost all of human history there have been multiple large powers competing across the world stage. Even at the height of the Roman Empire or British Empire there were other large Empires that constrained their power.
A multi-polar world is crucial for human freedom because it gives people choices; even if all the strong powers are tyrannous, there are always gaps where freedom can thrive.
Today three major Eurasian powers, with the support of many middle powers, are rising to end US hegemony: China, Russia and India.
While each of them is far from perfect, I would argue that individually each is less problematic than the current US hegemony and together their rise will usher a better world. Let's look at each in turn.
China
China is the largest economy in the world GDP (PPP) basis.
There is no question that China's internal policies including ethnic cleansing, social credit scores and COVID-19 authoritarianism are dystopian.
However China is not and has not historically been an expansionist power, either in hard power or soft power. It seeks to control Chinese territory (including Taiwan) and Chinese people (wherever they live), but nothing more. It is a trading nation with quite historically static borders that seeks to expand trade routes (see One Belt One Road) and ensure the flow of the natural resources it needs to survive by commercial means.
It does not have nor seek hundreds of bases around the world, a massive fleet of aircraft carriers, nor engage in military interventions, beyond seeking to bring the ethnically and historically identical Taiwanese Chinese under its control.
Moreover, while China has risen hugely, its working age population has already peaked and it is in serious demographic decline, with a catastrophically low TFR of 1.16 births per woman. Its economic growth is slowing and its falling population is exposing massive over and mal-investment in infrastructure for people who will never be born.
So there is really no risk of China taking the US's place as global hegemon.
But in the short term its military and economic might is a huge counterweight to the US.
Russia
While the Soviet Union sought world domination from both a military and ideological perspective, today's Russia seeks to protect itself from an expansionist NATO that has broken multiple agreements not to expand and to recover those majority ethnically Russian territories that it has controlled for almost 1000 years and which it lost by the stroke of a pen at the end of the Cold War.
It is a conservative and morally traditional Empire at its smallest size since 1650 and it feels existentially threatened by the US led "West". It is also the world's largest country with huge natural resources and a military industrial complex that seems to be able to out-produce the US and Europe combined in crucial basic artillery ammunition as well as make weapons that actually work on the battlefield rather than just in marketing material.
It is also suffering demographic decline, although Putin's leadership and return to traditional Russian values has dramatically increased its TFR from a catastrophic (China level) 1.25 births per woman to a much better, but still below replacement, 1.8 births per woman. Its TFR is now much higher than the EU's 1.5 and a bit higher than the US's 1.66.
Perhaps this is partly why Putin has a very high approval rating of over 80%.
It could also be because you get imprisoned for being a prominent critic of Putin, but in the US you get cancelled and arrested on false charges and this hasn't made Biden popular!
Notably Ukraine did not get a Putin led fertility recovery and has a terrible, China level, birthrate of 1.16. Its population dropped from 50 million in 1989 to 40 million before the war and is now around 30 million.
Russia does not have the human resources or will to militarily control populations without substantial ethnically Russian components, but it can certainly conquer most, if not all of Ukraine, no matter what over-rated weapons the West gives the Zelensky regime.
India
India is now the world's most populous country, third largest economy and the world's largest democracy.
It doesn't make the news a lot because it minds its own business and doesn't start wars or interfere in other countries.
Its current leader, Modi, has an approval rating of 78%, unlike the leaders of other so called Western democracies with leaders with approval ratings well below 50% (Biden 42%, Macron 25%, Trudeau 35%, Sunak 28%). Only Putin (80%) and El Salvador's Nayib Bukele does better (at 91%).
Unlike all the other major powers, it is demographically healthy with a TFR of 2.03, although it has also experienced a rapid drop from over 2.5 in a decade.
Unlike China, India is not engaged in dystopian internal policies. Unlike the US, it is not engaged in multiple wars around the world and behaving as a global policeman. Unlike Russia it is not engaged in major wars, although there are skirmishes with Pakistan from time to time.
While India is the poorest of all the major powers on a GDP per capita basis, it rates third (behind China and the US) in total GDP (PPP basis), and is experiencing rapid economic growth with growth rates in the 6 -9% range.
This is higher than the US and Russia and similar to but more sustainable than China.
In the longer term India will exceed China and the US economically as it has demographically.
If it maintains its democracy and non-interference policies it will be a vast improvement over the US as the world's most powerful nation.
Next Instalment - How middle power nations should adjust to this multi-polar world.
In my next post I will address how middle power nations which are traditional US allies like Australia, UK, Germany, France and Israel should adjust to this new multi-polar world.
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