Not long ago, suddenly announced that the central bank to raise interest rates, the interest rate hike is in the United States, Japan and other developed countries, the central bank has just announced the implementation of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy actions taken contrary, it becomes very unusual, because it indicates a loose macro-policy stimulus began to withdraw, which reflects the Chinese macro-control authorities to current and future international and domestic economic trends to determine, if not optimistic, at least positive. However, this trend for the macro-economic judgments are correct?
The problem is that the toxic assets the United States is too large, the Fed can buy through? The end of 2008, the United States only the market value of derivative financial products as high as 416 trillion U.S. dollars, there are tens of trillions of dollars in loans and bonds.
Subprime mortgage crisis, the Fed had thought that these toxic financial assets, although the scale, but is based on "triangular debts" approach held by financial institutions to each other, through unified action to substantially resolve the liquidation, it had organized in early 2008, the United States. The joint clearing dozens of large banks CDS, the result is a total of 62 trillion U.S. dollars in the settlement of such financial products, only 12 trillion dollars does not go out, indicating that the actual financial bad debt is far larger.
In addition, derivative financial products because of the bursting of the bubble bottom of the various loan summarized as follows loans, commercial real estate loans and falling house prices because land prices and other reasons can not be returned to the first half of this year, with the sub-prime outbreak in July 2007 when the phase ratio of commercial real estate and housing prices have fallen more than 40%, and 9 month, the United States the number of housing foreclosures more than 10 million units for the first time, this shows that the underlying structure of U.S. financial buildings than the subprime mortgage crisis Shihai worse, but much less so if a new outbreak of the financial crisis the United States to be better than the last to be stronger.
Japan's asset bubble burst in the 15 years, a total disposed of about 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars of bad debts, the stock market and real estate was worth about 10%. If the total of around 500 trillion of financial products in the United States, 5% of bad debt is 25 trillion, the U.S. broad money M2 is 2.8 times, so the second round of U.S. monetary policy of quantitative easing is not against the United States the real economy and the unemployment rate to, but mainly in order to cope with the upcoming new U.S. financial turmoil.
U.S. subprime crisis has successfully handled the growth of broad money, M2 in size from its pre-crisis to the current 7.4 trillion to 8.7 trillion dollars, but if forced to release in order to purchase hundreds of thousands of toxic assets billion U.S. currency, the dollar's credibility there?
I said before, the reason why countries such as China's trade surplus holdings of U.S. assets will continue, because you can increase the value of U.S. dollar assets, with depreciation of the dollar if the U.S. approach to the inflation trade surplus with China and other countries to pass the debt crisis, international capital to will not continue to flow into the United States, even large-scale outflows from the United States, the Great Depression the U.S. economy will really come.
Now, the U.S. financial products to honor the new peak should appear in the next year, the U.S. government and Federal Reserve introduced a new policy is to stimulate the U.S. economy and financial markets, "warm", but this crisis is to escape, we will will see that, due to the currency depreciation of the dollar set off a worldwide craze and serious inflation, and the world economy in the U.S. economy is once again dip is followed by the second bottom.
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