Trump's Foreign Policy seems to be mainly driven by support for American oil companies - what with Venezula and now Iran, it certainly seems to be benefitting these fossil companies.
But this all seems a bit 20th century...
That approach made sense when oil ruled the world. Wars, alliances, and whole economies turned on who had access to oil. But the game has changed. Now, the real action’s in electricity, which isn't all about oil necessarily.
The International Energy Agency reports that nearly all the new power capacity to be brought online in 2026 will come from renewables. It would seem that the future of energy lies here, along with batteries and smarter power grids.
So Trump's policy for oil seems stuck in the past....
China’s More Modern Edge
Even if China has now lost access to Venezuelan oil, it doesn’t really matter because they’ve already set themselves up elsewhere. China now cranks out over 80% of the world’s solar panels. They’re building out renewables and electrifying their grid at a massive scale.
And sure military hardware which relies on oil still matters, but electricity is the backbone of so much... AI, chips, electric cars. If China keeps pulling ahead in power production, especially from renewables, it wins leverage where it counts. The International Renewable Energy Agency points out that renewables aren’t just about cleaner air anymore - they’re tied directly to industrial policy and global influence.
If you look at it this way, Trump’s focus on fossil fuels risks handing China the future: advanced grids, clean factories, battery supply chains, and all the high-tech systems that run on electricity.
A Moral Crime, or Just Bad Economics?
Every big leap in industry follows an energy shift: coal launched the first revolution, oil the second, and now we’re in the middle of electrification and digital tech. If the next wave is all about renewables, sticking with oil means betting on a shrinking pie.
Investors see this too. Money is moving away from fossil fuels, thanks to climate concerns, regulations, and the risk of getting stuck with outdated tech. Fossil projects look more and more like stranded assets these days.
So in this light, Washington is pushing yesterday’s solutions, while Beijing seems to be more focussed on the future.
Final Thoughts....
Of course oil is not going to disappear overnight but it's also important to think where you put new investment and political effort?
If Trump’s aiming for American industrial strength, he might actually be weakening it. Energy transitions are messy, but when the world hits a tipping point, there’s no turning back.
The last century was built on oil power plays. This one’s shaping up to be about who controls electrification. If that’s true, clinging to the old ways could mean America's downfall in the long-run....
So for the moment it's all fun and games for the Trump administration, but that won't last!