Venezuela leaves behind a complex year in the economic. The enormous difficulties, adversities and strong restrictions (external and internal) were present from the first minute of 2016.
In the external context, the country continued to face the long period of collapse - more than 50% in just two years - of international oil prices, a near-mortal wound to an economy that depends on 95% of the oil sales in Their foreign exchange earning. To the proofs we refer: during the last three years, the decrease of the income in foreign exchange has been a constant. Between 2014 and 2015 revenues from oil revenues increased from $ 39,716 million to $ 13,236 million; While in 2016 they beat a new low record: 5,291 million. This is without a doubt the worst fall of the last decade.
At the external level, we can not forget the pressure that the international financial powers have played against Venezuela. How is it that a country that every time it pays its commitments to the creditors, in time and according to the conditions of reimbursement, it rises the country risk to him? The truth is that despite the attempts to position the story of a Venezuela in default, the country has honored with all its financial obligations. Specifically, in 2016 alone, the country canceled - in time - more than 17,000 million dollars in the form of bonds (capital plus interest). In fact, in the last two and a half years, from the end of 2014 to 2015 and 2016, the country has paid just over $ 60 billion in international commitments. Venezuela pays while the financial world says there is a lot of risk it will not pay. However, nothing has to do with the creditors' confidence in Venezuelan debt with what certain rating agencies prophesy. More than 90% of debt holders have never resold it in any secondary market in the last 4 years. That is to say: the trust in Venezuela exists badly that it weighs many to him.
In the internal context, on the other hand, the economic war of nonconventional character propelled by agents antagonistic to the Bolivarian Revolution was intensified. The political, economic and financial fronts made use of all their arsenal to chaotizar the already felt economy of the country. A long list of powerful groups promoted different strategies for systematically affecting food production and distribution chains, hoarding commodities, attacking the national currency through border mafias, inducing speculative inflation. Mostly, sectors that without producing a single item were profiting from the crisis by much more than 100%.
None of this means that the Venezuelan economy does not have its own structural imbalances after more than three decades of accelerated transformations. The need to increase domestic production to ensure stable demand-driven supply is a pressing issue. The productive agenda is truly the great challenge of the country's economy. It is necessary to generate wealth indoors to avoid so much external dependence. And this must also be done with productive and social efficiency. The Venezuelan model is not anyone; And what is involved is to grow distributing so that wealth is not created at the expense of the impoverishment of the majority. The 15 productive engines must be the backbone of the new economy of 2017.
Contrary to the dominant recipe in other countries in the region, in Venezuela, President Maduro in his last accountability (from 2016) made clear that the way forward is not the neoliberal. In his speech, he showed that the path is not the austerity economic policy. Neither social cuts nor nominal wage cuts. The Bolivarian "adjustment" in its place has been focused on protecting the pocket of the majorities and thus the numbers confirm it. Some figures:
In 2016 social investment was 73%, an increase of one and a half points compared to the expenditure of 2015 (71.4%).
In terms of wages, there were five increases in the minimum monthly income during the last year and the beginning of this year, which together add up to an accumulated annual of 536%.
In the Social Security system, nowadays 9 out of 10 older adults belong to the pension system which in 2016 accounted for more than 3,200,000 pensioners, about 89.9% of the people of age to receive this benefit in the country .
In relation to other social programs, 335,000 houses rehabilitated by the Barrio Nuevo program, Barrio Tricolor, and 359,000 new homes built by the Gran Visión Vivienda Venezuela (GMVV), for a total of 1,350,000 five-year homes. Its launch.
In relation to the food question, the Local Committees for Supply and Production (CLAP) were born, a form of popular organization that responds to the need to create, from the local, a new system of production of essential items and the Distribution among communities. From the time of its creation until the end of 2016, 351,674 tons of food were delivered to 1,945,441 families. For the first quarter of 2017 the goal is to reach six million households. In addition to this, in short, CLAP stores will be created that will seek to expand the offer of complementary products at fair prices.
But in addition to the social, we must highlight the great rudder in tax and exchange rate. In the tributary, the Bolivarian government showed that it knows how to navigate against the current of the neoliberal canon. President Maduro made the decision to protect 2,400,000 families by exempting him from paying the corresponding income tax with the previous year. This means that almost 95% of taxpayers (individuals) will not pay this tax. But in return, he proposed the creation of an estate tax for those companies with assets in excess of 2,000 million bolivars (almost 3 million dollars calculated to Dicom). This shows that the Tax Revolution is still underway in Venezuela, protecting those who have less and focusing all their attention on those who have been enriched and much in these difficult years.En relación a lo cambiario, se han abierto casas de cambio en territorio venezolano en zona fronteriza. El objetivo es ganar soberanía cambiaria frente a la arremetida permanente desde Colombia que ha venido permitiendo “legalmente” que los intermediarios cambiarios pongan el tipo de cambio que deseen haciendo caso omiso a lo que diga su propio Banco Central. Este diferencial cambiario, amparado en la resolución 8, es realmente nocivo para Venezuela pues atenta a una relación económica de competencia leal. La nueva decisión económica de permitir la convertibilidad entre el bolívar y el peso colombiano en las casas de cambio venezolanas abre un nuevo pulso cambiario con mejores condiciones y herramientas para evitar la devaluación practicada desde Colombia contra la moneda venezolana.
Se viene un año económico 2017 seguramente bien diferente al pasado. Los precios del petróleo comienzan con un valor de 45 dólares el barril cuando en enero del 2016 marcaban un mínimo histórico de 20. El arco minero ha comenzado a funcionar. Las relaciones con China siguen dando sus frutos. La restricción externa amaina relativamente. Y a nivel interno, las condiciones de partida son infinitamente mejores que las del año pasado para inaugurar hacia delante una nueva época productiva. La casa económica venezolana está mucho más organizada para afrontar el nuevo año.
