I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the VP debate will NOT have any significant effect on the outcome of the election. Here's why:
- VP debates virtually never do.
- This year, a significant effect is even less likely than usual because 1) there are so few swing voters still out there, and 2) there is so much else going on that public attention is divided.
- By far the most famous moment in any VP debate was this one from 1988, where Lloyd Bentsen skewered Dan Quayle, by pointing out "you're no Jack Kennedy." Or at least that was the near-universal perception of what happened (anyone old enough to remember it will, I think, confirm that impression). Yet it had close to zero impact on the election, and Bush-Quayle still won easily. The second-most famous VP debate moment was arguably Bob Dole's "Democrat wars" gaffe in 1976. The election that year was so close it's possible Dole's error really did have an impact. But most likely it still did not. In any event, if even Bentsen's epic putdown had little or no effect, I think the same is likely to be true of anything that happens tonight.
- If I turn out to be wrong about this, I guess that will just just prove that I'm no Jack Kennedy, either. But I am now older than JFK was when he died, and several years older than Quayle was in 1988 (the JFK putdown was brought about the Quayle's attempt to parry claims he was too young to be VP by citing the JFK precedent of a person about the same age as Quayle getting to the White House). Being the same age as JFK and Quayle were makes me feel old myself!