[https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/04/06/charles-koch-snoop-dogg-marijuana-legalization-479148](here is the article)
Snoop Dogg and Charles Koch's group "Americans for Prosperity(AFP)" are working together to form the Cannabis Freedom Alliance (CFA). I know everyone is shocked by Snoop Dogg's support, but let's focus on the highly influential right wing group: AFP.
"Americans for Prosperity, founded by the Koch brothers in 2004, is one of the most influential organizations in conservative politics. The group rivals and even eclipses the official GOP in terms of its size, scope and spending."
Directly from the article. So now cannabis is getting support from conservatives, in a big way, and conservatives love free and open markets. They will tell you where you can put your regulations, just ask em. So, on top of a much better chance of getting 10-12 Republicans to vote in favor of Cannabis, which is great news for everyone, this is also AMAZING news for Candian LP's like TilAphria, and bad news for MSOs like TruShit. I mean Trulieve.
Don't believe me? According to one of the founders of the CFA (from the article):
"A lot of big cannabis companies are fighting against things like interstate commerce because it doesn’t support their business model,” Angelos said. “That’s another reason why [AFP] is a perfect ally on this because they support free and open markets.”
Weeeeeeeeird. Do you guys think it's "big cannabis companies" like TilAphria or other large LPs fighting the interstate commerce, or maybe ones like Trulieve who are desperately clinging on to their dying business models? If interstate commerce is allowed, it will cost LPs only shipping costs to send their products to all 50 states, and their juicy markets. They already sit on an excess of product and grow space, just waiting for bigger markets.
Meanwhile, Trulieve spent 60m+ on 2 retail stores, then diluted. 🤦. So whatever markets they just spent 60m on, will eventually be available to everyone else (LPs and MSOs) for the cost of shipping to their stores or other new stores in the same area, post legalization with interstate commerce. No real long term cannabis company is focused on building a retail focused business. Just ask Curaleaf (read their ER) why their EU expansion is so exciting. They have no intentions of vertically integrating AND INSTEAD are building large manufacturing and distributing centers to serve large regions. Ya know, like Coke or Marlboro or Corona or literally any other CPG giant. Y'all been in a Coke owned store lately? Hm. How about the Corona ones? Hm.... Well, surely the Marlboro store? Those are everywhere!......
The kind of the interesting thing about the switch from a medical market to a recreational market is that 100% of the time, some of the the biggest opponents of the switch from medical to recreational are the current medical companies. Why would they want a bunch of new competition, regulations, and taxes? They don't. They fight the bills in the name of "patients rights" or some other made up bullshit.
Then there's the other side of the coin. Once the switch from medical to recreational finally does happen, medical companies tend to find a lot less recreational companies wanting to work with them than they'd like. When you have to sit on the sidelines while someone else builds a monopoly, you aren't too keen to help them.
Recreational business owners aren't stupid either. They are fully aware of those helping reinforce the "status quo." So, imagine you were to open a recreational marijuana dispensary after waiting for years in Florida, and a Trulieve sales rep walks in with their shitty logo on his shirt, how likely would you be to put their products on your shelf? I mean, why would you when there would be countless other brands to choose from with no retail presence? You wouldn't. It would make no sense. People who want Trulieve product can just go to a Trulieve store. Plus, wouldn't you purposefully notcarry the same thing as your direct competitor, and especially their own in house brands? Unless you're "Cookies," I just don't see that happening, and Trulieve AINT "Cookies."
From a customer or "patient" perspective, in Florida, are you going to a Trulieve store for the 1,536th time after legalization, or "Starbuds" that just opened down the road with "100+ new brands!" sign out front? Best case scenario would be Trulieve also adds a huge new line of other companies brands to their shelves, but is that really good news for them? They'd lose say 30-60% of their shelf space across all 70+ stores. That's gonna cause a surplus of weed for them pretty quickly.
They currently make so much money because they essentially own a monopoly on stores, and a monopoly on products within those stores. You want weed and live in FL? There's a 50% chance you're going to a Trulieve store, and a 100% chance you'll get a Trulieve product in that store. I've never seen something more "priced in" in my entire life, yet people still think Trulieve is going higher. Trulieve is only $40+ because of the current market regulations. Take away the favorable regulations, and you take away Trulieve, and get TruShit.
Post legalization, each Trulieve store will just be one of X amount in a town selling weed. Florida currently has a dispensary ratio of around 1.1. Fully legal states have ratios closer to 10. Thats 10x the competition, just to get customers in the door. Even if they do come in Trulieve's door, they may not even buy a Trulieve product since they would be forced to carry other brands as well as their own.
Not every MSO is fighting for a fully legal market, and it's pretty obvious to point out the ones who could potentially be hurt the most by a free and open market. TruShit being king among them. In my retarded opinion, wholesale focused MSOs and LPs are much much much better long term options for a legal market. Stop investing in a dying medical market, 🤷.
TilAphria 🚀🚀🚀🚀
MSO I can't say 🚀🚀🚀🚀😂