GENEVA | The probability of an El Niño phenomenon, a severe weather episode pushing up the global average temperatures, has climbed to 70% for the last quarter of the year, announced Monday the UN.
"Based on model predictions and expert interpretations, it is approximately 70% likely that observed conditions will reach the stage of a low-intensity El Niño episode in the last quarter of 2018 and the boreal winter of 2018 / 19, "the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency based in Geneva, said in a statement.
"In other words, this scenario is twice as likely as that of a persistence of neutral conditions," the experts said.
"This warming could (...) happen very quickly, between September and November already, although the forecasts in question are uncertain," added the WMO.
The El Niño phenomenon recurs regularly and results in an increase in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean, pushing the average temperature upward and affecting global rainfall.
The UN agency notes that the intensity of the next El Niño episode is "uncertain as the results of the numerical forecasts oscillate between neutral conditions and a moderate intensity Niño".
She believes, however, that "the arrival of a powerful Niño seems unlikely".
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that has a major impact on the global climate, resulting in droughts and floods in different parts of the world.
WMO emphasizes that the El Niño phenomenon is not the only factor that determines global climate patterns. Furthermore, according to the experts, there is not necessarily a direct correlation between the intensity of a Niño episode and the magnitude of its impact.
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