England v Belgium
There has already been much speculation about whether or not one of these sides could "tank" the game to finish 2nd in Group G and get the potentially easier path to the semi's.
I don't subscribe to the theory a team will throw the game but I believe Belgium would be more amenable to not winning this match than England.
Firstly lets look at the facts.
The team that finishes top of Group H will play the winner of Brazil v Mexico if they make it through their Round of 16 game.
2nd in Group H will play the winner of Sweden v Switzerland if they make it through their Round of 16 match.
That particular Round of 16 match will be played at Spartak Stadium in Moscow which is important to note as Belgium's team base in Russia is already in Moscow at the Moscow Country Club.
This would mean minimal disruption/travel for Belgium is guaranteed if they finish 2nd.
Also, an extra days rest.
The Round of 16 matches will be England/Belgium v Colombia/Japan/Senegal with lots of permutations.
What we do know is England/Belgium will both know for sure who their Round of 16 opponents would be before they kick off as they are the later games.
Belgium coach Roberto Martinez has already ruled out Lukaku and confirmed Hazard & Mertins are under an injury cloud for the England match.
Martinez has hinted Belgium will make changes for the match.
English coach Southgate has declared they will be going for the win and top spot.
Hazard is in doubt for the England match
Now we have those facts to read into lets look at my opinion or read on it.
I believe Belgium want 2nd more than England because:
Travel is a disruption and it would be a huge advantage for Belgium to stay close by for their Round of 16 match regardless of the opponent.
Belgium have big expectations on them in this World Cup and anything less than a Semi Final berth would be seen as a fail.
Given the way the draw has opened up, the Belgium people will most likely be demanding even more than that now.
That makes it even more imperative for them to avoid playing Brazil in the Quarter Finals.
Belgium would back themselves to beat Japan/Senegal easily while Colombia would be of slightly more concern.
England on the other hand do not quite have as high expectations on them as Belgium.
While a Quarter Final exit has been seen as a fail in the past, it would be a pass mark for Southgate's men this time around.
England would be more fearful of failure in the Round of 16 than who they might play in the Quarter Finals.
Finishing top gives England a weaker Round of 16 opponent.
The England team know better than anyone how savage the British press can be.
If the British press even got a whiff that England were not %100 going for the win, the media hysteria and disruption could completely derail their campaign.
Who I think the match ups will be
Before kick off in the England v Belgium game tonight both will know their Round of 16 opponents.
I think Colombia will defeat Senegal and I don't think Japan will get all 3 points against a talented Polish side desperate to regain some measure of pride after a disappointing World Cup campaign.
In this scenario Colombia would top Group H and Japan finish 2nd.
This would mean the winner of England v Belgium would play Japan in the Round of 16 while the loser will play Colombia.
In Summary
I think a Round of 16 match against a very beatable Japan side would be huge incentive for England to press hard to win their match against Belgium.
While Colombia would not be a desired opponent for Belgium they would still back themselves in to defeat Colombia with the reward being less travel, more rest and a Quarter Final against Sweden or Switzerland as opposed to Brazil.
I think regardless of what happens in the earlier games Belgium will not throw the match against England but they will not be at their pressuring best and almost certainly will not be selecting their best 11.
They won't exactly be allowing England to walk goals in but won't be concerned if they score.
This means a great scenario for Brave punters who might be interested in taking the $2.60 odds on offer for an England victory tonight.
While nothing is ever certain on a football field, England might be the closest to a sure thing as they've ever been in a match.
Regardless of what happens, we are certainly in for another interesting day of World Cup action.
Thanks for Reading
- Dahmsy79