“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” - Albert Einstein.
This quote by one of the most brilliant minds to have existed on the planet, pretty much says everything about our current predicament. We have devised ways that could end us in a matter of hours.
Stop for a minute and think about that. As a species, we took tens of thousands of years to evolve to where we are today and all that could end in a single day! Evolution really took a hit on that one!
Today, the most devastating tools at our disposal for our own destruction are nuclear weapons. They have the ability to wipe out entire cities in an instant. Depending on where the bombs are dropped, millions of people can lose their lives at a snap of the fingers.
If there ever will be a World War III, depending on the situation, countries with nukes might use them to neutralise their enemies. That made me think. What exactly would happen after a nuclear fallout. I did some research and found out that researchers had conducted a study in which they imagine a scenario where India and Pakistan go all out in a nuclear war detonating some 100 nukes roughly the size of the one dropped at Hiroshima in World War II
Here is what the aftermath would look like:
D-Day
- Depending on the place, climate condition and other factors, millions of people would die immediately in densely populated cities as they would be engulfed in firestorms that would incinerate everything in its path.
- An estimated 20 million people would die from the direct effects of the weapons and a greater number will be injured and would suffer from radiation sickness who would also lose their lives in the not so distant future.
- The whole scene would be a terrifying and horrific one. One that would scar your soul and give you nightmares for the rest of your lives if you happened to be at a ‘safer’ distance so as to be able to witness things.
- In fact, witnesses of the Hiroshima attack say that the people who were nearer to the centre of the blast just vanished! Thousands of people just vanished into thin air without living a trace, not even ash! That is the hell that nukes bring with them.
Year 0
- In our imaginary scenario, the detonation of 100 nuclear weapons would result in the release of 5 megatons of black carbon into the atmosphere.
- The black carbon would quickly spread around the world due to wind patterns and would form a stratospheric layer just 50 km above the earth.
- Some of it, would fall back down to earth in the form of black carbon rain, which would kill millions more throughout the world.
- Within days after the explosions, temperatures would start decreasing at a global level because of the black carbon in the atmosphere absorbing a lot of the sunlight.
Year 1
- After one year, the average surface temperature of the Earth would drop by 1 degree Celsius (2 degree F).
- This falling temperature would reduce the amount of rainfall that the planet receives each year.
Year 2
- Temperatures would keep on declining further, making life harder for the survivors in other countries.
- Crop growing season would be shortened by 10 to 40 days only, causing a mass shortage in global food supplies leading to a mass world hunger.
Year 5
- The global average temperatures drop by 1.5 degree Celsius than today’s levels. It would be colder than it has ever been in 1000 years.
- In the 5 years since the nuclear war, ozone layer would deplete by 25-40%. This would increase the amount of UV light entering the earth causing all sorts of diseases making life even more difficult for everyone.
- More and more people would start to die due to the dwindling food supply.
- In another study, researchers theorised that an estimated 2 billion people could starve to death in nuclear winter.
After 5 years, things will finally start improving on the environmental front, albeit slowly.
Year 10
- The ozone layer would have recovered to 8% less than modern day.
Year 20
- The global temperatures finally start to reach the modern day levels. The temperature then would be about 0.5 degree C lower than today.
So, as you can see, the effects of a nuclear war is far reaching, not only for the countries involved but for everyone else. It would be in the interest of all of us that we begin to look seriously at nuclear disarmament.
This was the very point of the research that was conducted. The researchers wanted the bigger, more powerful countries who have hordes of nuclear weapons to start taking disarmament by providing them with a case study using computer models that show nothing but devastation for everyone on the planet.
If two countries who have relatively smaller amount of nuclear stock pile in their arsenal could do that to the planet, imagine what countries like US and Russia could do if they ever had a nuclear war. The results would be even more devastating and things would get real bad real soon.
In all of this, humanity’s biggest loss, would be humanity itself.
Here's the original paper if anyone is interested in doing a more detailed study.