This is a strange political topic because a) a small network optimistic about technical progress for two decades was derided by 'experts' yet proved right, b) apparent straight lines are exponential, and

Consequently, a small set of entities will accelerate beyond political control, further driving elite fragmentation/polarisation The Valley is failing at politics and communication but could still pivot

Why deployment will also be very jagged Why SW1's DEMAND PROBLEM guarantees pathological failure on AI

Paid models trained on Bismarck’s diplomacy 1862–66 then produce far better analysis of contemporary problems than ~99% of MPs The 'jagged frontier' of the models Perception gaps between SW1 and the Valley

Experiments include fact‑checking, resolving historians' disputes, analysing conspiracies, and tracing elite ideas over time

New blog: using AI models for research When selecting a researcher, paid Claude or GPT with token limits set to an MP's pro rata salary (perhaps several MPs!) would outperform about 99% of MPs

Self-recommendation

But it can't be done. Nobody can. Not even the freaks The good news is that AI is the best mechanic to parse signal from the noise, and that capability is being developed

Even worse, the world now presents itself as if everything is equally adjacent: every article, every take, every message, every possibility, every person, every catastrophe, & every opportunity. The

The amount available to perceive, read, respond to, maintain, understand, optimize, archive, remember, compare, desire, fear, & keep up with is grotesquely higher than what a human day can metabolize

Modern life has become a bandwidth trap

The Global Village!

Exactly As AI takes on more tasks, work that is uniquely human becomes increasingly valuable

The audience needs room to land each beat, and the pause is where listeners decide whether the speaker is worth listening to. Cadence is effectively the message

Many default to 2x because they’re racing to get thoughts out before they slip, but a speed that feels articulate in the head reads as anxious to listeners.

Something people often forget when speaking publicly—whether in interviews, podcasts, or any broadcast—is to slow down. Speakers basically need to speak at about 0.5x; this is so fucking common.

No.

The tail risk is lack of purpose, not a shortage of jobs

People follow power-law dynamics, and machine intelligence becomes the ultimate tool for standout individuals and lone operators The great-man theory of history will shape the future more than ever

Agreed