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Norman Fenton
@normanfenton
58
Probability and risk
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https://www.normanfenton.com/
Created
August 1, 2019
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normanfenton
bayes
2022-02-24 19:40
Bayes, Likelihood ratio and DNA evidence
This 28 min lecture (which I gave at the 2021 US National Forensic College meeting in New York) provides an introductory overview of Bayes and likelihood ratios and looks at its use in DNA evidence
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normanfenton
censorship
2022-02-16 13:45
Routine censorship of dissenting voices
Given the current scale of censorship against anybody who challenges the 'accepted narrative' (epecially on Covid), the following updates aren't especially significant; but as these two emails landed in
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normanfenton
covid
2022-01-24 20:44
Computing years of lost life: why actuaries really need to be able to do counterfactual reasoning
Hugh Osmond recently put out this interesting twitter thread: Although the average age of death in the UK is around 82, if a person reaches 82 then on average (i.e. without knowing any details of
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normanfenton
covid
2022-01-06 23:43
Evaluation of vaccine efficacy and safety must take account of early treatments
We've been focusing on all-cause mortality as the key indicator of vaccine safety and effectiveness: if, for a particular age group over a reasonable period of time, the number of all-cause deaths (i.e.
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normanfenton
COVID-19
2022-01-03 22:50
No fancy statistics: a simple plot of vaccination rate against Covid death rate for all countries in the world
Using the "Our Word in Data" website we have extracted the latest snapshot for each country of total vaccinations per hundred people and total 'covid deaths' per million. The full data by country - in
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normanfenton
COVID-19
2021-12-24 15:41
New ONS report on deaths by vaccination: serious anomalies and further obfuscation
The latest ONS report on deaths by vaccination status has serious anomalies (as in their previous report which we analysed in this paper). The most obvious one is that their analysis claims age standardized
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normanfenton
COVID-19
2021-12-08 11:57
Concerns about claims of Covid-19 vaccination effectiveness and safety
Our research team have now analysed the ONS England November 2021 mortality data. We conclude that, despite seeming evidence to support vaccine effectiveness, this conclusion is doubtful because of a range
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normanfenton
STEMGeeks
2021-12-03 22:53
Another story of academic corruption relating to Covid data
Covid and academic corruption
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normanfenton
STEMGeeks
2021-12-03 21:47
Possible systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status raises concerns about claims of Covid-19 vaccination effectiveness
Our research team have now analysed the ONS England November mortality data. We conclude that, despite seeming evidence to support vaccine effectiveness, this conclusion is doubtful because of a
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normanfenton
STEMGeeks
2021-11-28 14:47
So "1 in 3 with Covid-19 have no symptoms" has been quietly changed to "1 in 7"
Having argued for a long time that the Government's relentless propaganda claim that "1 in 3 people who have Covid-19 have no symptoms" is a scam, I was amazed to come across this BBC article
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normanfenton
STEMGeeks
2021-11-26 16:29
!
Downvoted by users, Reveal content
Covid-19 lockdowns: do the 'benefits' exceed the 'costs'?
The usual suspects are demanding new lockdowns and removal of civil liberties. So, a reminder that no matter what the risks of #COVID, lockdowns cause much greater destruction. Our risk/analytics work
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normanfenton
covid-19
2021-11-24 22:03
The European Union's highly misleading chart and message about vaccine effectiveness
EU presents highly misleading chart of vaccine effectiveness
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normanfenton
introduction
2021-11-24 15:48
Introduce Myself - My first post on Hive
Introduction to Norman Fenton
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