What is the real death rate of Covid-19? I want to estimate the per-age fatality rate of different countries: China, South Korea and Italy. South Korea has 72 deaths and 8086 cases for an overall CFR of

Attempting to predict things is hard, especially about the future. Right now I am doing some very rough estimates of where I expect things to be in two weeks. (on 3/22/2020) South Korea: The outbreak in

A dialogue between R (rationalist) and P (post-rationalist) Any resemblance of these fictional characters to real people is not a coincidence because nothing is ever really a coincidence. R: I sincerely

This post is about reviewing some of the slightly counter-intuitive conclusions that Baysean probability theory has on agreement between people’s probabilities about the same belief. You have probably

This post is generally in response to both Paul Christiano’s post and the original foom debate. I am trying to find the exact circumstances and conditions which would point to fast or slow AI takeoff.

This post has two parts. First, I outline some way to evaluate arguments about the Fermi paradox which show ways that it is unlikely to be solved by, as well as some common arguments against the Early

You may have not have heard about the Efficient Markets Hypothesis or wondered how it would apply to different assets classes. However, if you have been in investing, you probably have heard at least some

The post "How an Algorithm Feels from the Inside” is one the highlights of rationality. It has a lot packed into it, so here is my take on it. There is a program in your brain. I call it

Hello, my name is Pasha. I am a software developer currently at Microsoft interested in cryptocurrency, rationality and AI Safety. My links: Life In A Free Market Twitter LinkedIn All opinions are my own