The Iowa Republican Caucus is set for January 15 - and will quickly clarify the state of the race to be the Republican Presidential Nominee.
Donald Trump will win the contest, the only question is the magnitude of the victory.
2016 had a total of nine (9) candidates who won at least one delegate. The race is 2024 is narrowed to Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron Desantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Asa Hutchinson.
There are a total of 40 pledged delegate up for grabs - that will be awarded in proportion to the percentage of the vote each candidate receives. The table below captures the range of delegates I believe each candidate is likely to win. View the table directly here.
January 15 is expected to be a bitterly cold night in Iowa. If participation is reduced by the weather this will likely help Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump the most. In general DeSantis and Haley are the choice of Republicans who want to vote against Trump rather than candidates that have broad and organic support. Neither NeoCon Nikki or Desantis exude charisma.
Donald Trump has a polling average of 52.5% in Iowa, this tracks closely with his performance in the 2020 Iowa General Election when he won 53.09% of the vote. In 2016 the polls conducted immediately before the Iowa slightly overstated Trump's support. 2024 is substantially and fundamentally different than 2016.
Nikki Haley and Ron Desantis are competing for second place. Haley's surge seems to be a media construct, attempting to manufacture a candidate who can challenge Trump. Haley's support seems to have come at the expense of the hapless Desantis. The Desantis campaign has faltered going into Iowa. Desantis's polling numbers have been decreasing steadily and linearly over the past year.
Image Source: Real Clear Politics
Vivek Ramaswamy has some enthusiastic supporters, and believes his ground game isn't reflected in the poll numbers. If there is a surprise in Iowa it will likely come from Vivek, but he is almost certain to come in 4th place. Ramaswamy's campaign stumbled this week, as Vivek's suggestion that MAGA voters should vote for him to "Save Trump". Vivek was rebuked by Trump, and MAGA responded furiously to Ramaswamy. Vivek needs an exceptional performance in Iowa to justify continuing the campaign into New Hampshire.
Ava Hutchinson is a virtual non-entity in this race he will either earn one delegate or none, if he fails to pass the minimum threshold.
I will follow up Tuesday to either claim predictive victory or eat some crow!