Hi Everyone,
The NFL playoffs have come around again. This year I am going to do things a little differently. I normally predict the result of every game before the playoffs begin. It is a lot of fun, but once I predict a game or games wrongly, which I do every year, the next round of games changes. Teams that I have predicted to play have been eliminated, and the different seeding of the winning teams changes the games as well. Therefore, the predictions from that point forward are no longer relevant. This year, I am predicting what I consider the most likely Super Bowl matches.
Below are the links to my previous Super Bowl prediction posts.
How the Playoffs Work (covered in detail in the Super Bowl 57 post)
In short, it is a knockout competition where the number one seeds from each conference have a bye in the first round. Hence, why there are fourteen teams instead of sixteen. Losing teams are eliminated each week until there is only one team left from each conference. These two teams meet in the Super Bowl.
Teams in This Year’s Playoffs
The teams in the playoffs for the AFC are as follows, based on seeding:
- Denver Broncos
- New England Patriots
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Houston Texans
- Buffalo Bills
- L.A. Chargers
The teams in the playoffs for the NFC are as follows, based on seeding:
- Seattle Seahawks
- Chicago Bears
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Carolina Panthers
- L.A. Rams
- San Francisco 49ers
- Green Bay Packers
The first-round games are as follows:
AFC
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
NFC
Carolina Panthers vs. L.A. Rams
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Analysis of Teams
Before I make my predictions, I want to provide a brief analysis of all fourteen teams based on the statistics from the regular season. Below are the regular season records, points for and against, and recent form (last 5 games) for all the playoff teams.
Source: NFL
It has been a very competitive season among the top teams. In the AFC, five of the seven playoff teams have won at least twelve games. Four of the six non-division winners have won twelve games. Arguably, the non-division-winning playoff teams are stronger than the division-winning teams. The case for this argument is particularly strong in the NFC, where the Rams and the 49ers have better regular season records and net point differentials than three of the four division winners.
The AFC playoff teams cannot be clearly separated based on form. Six of the seven teams have won at least four of their past five games. The NFC teams are in considerably worse form. In terms of form, the Seahawks have separated themselves from the other division winners.
The win-loss records only reveal part of the picture. Below are some other statistics that I consider relevant in determining the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team. These are yards per play, percentage of plays that result in turnovers, penalties, and strength of schedule.
Source: ESPN, Power Rankings Guru for strength of schedule, and NFL Penalties
Note: %TO is the percentage of plays resulting in turnovers, play is yards per play, and SOS is the strength of schedule.
Several teams stand out in offensive efficiency. In the NFC, the Rams are averaging the most yards per play at 6.4 yards. The Seahawks are averaging 6.2 yards per play, but 2.8% of their offensive plays result in turnovers; this is twice that of the Rams. The Bears are only averaging 6 yards per play but only turn the ball over on 1% of their offensive plays.
In the AFC, the Patriots are averaging 6.6 yards per play and the Bills 6.4 yards per play. The rest of the AFC are averaging less than 6 yards per play. The Texans stand out for minimising turnovers; they only turnover the ball on 1.1% of their plays, which is significantly lower than any other AFC team. However, they are averaging almost a yard less per play than the Bills. The Broncos are the AFC number one seed, but they have one of the weakest offences. They are averaging joint fewest yards per play.
In the NFC, the Seahawks defence stands out above all other teams. They are best against both the pass and the run. Their defence is forcing turnovers on 2.5% of plays. This almost makes up for the high number of turnovers by their offence. The Bears’ defence stands out for giving up the most yards per play. However, they force the most turnovers; they force turnovers on 3.3% of opponent offensive plays. The overall worst defence might be the 49ers. They average the second most yards per play out of the seven NFC playoff teams but only force turnovers on 1.6% of plays.
In the AFC, the Broncos, Jaguars, and Texans have the best defences. The Broncos are good at minimising yards per play but rarely force turnovers, 1.4% of plays. The Jaguars and Texans give up slightly more yards per play, but force far more turnovers than the Broncos. The Bills have a strong defence against the pass but are very weak against the run. The Steelers may have the worst defence against the pass.
Penalties can make a huge difference in a game. The Rams have benefited the most of any NFL team in terms of yards penalised in their favour. Whereas the Broncos have suffered the most from net penalty yards against them.
The strength of schedule plays an important role in determining the success of a team. Teams play each team in their division twice, once at home and once away. The teams in the same division also play all the teams of one division in the AFC and one division in the NFC. For example, the NFC West teams played the AFC South teams and the NFC South teams. This amounts to fourteen games (six in the division, four in an AFC division, and four in the NFC division). The remaining three games are against teams that finished in the same place in their divisions from the previous season. A first-place team would play the three other first-place teams from the previous season, two from the same conference and one from the other conference. This should give the teams that finished lower in the division an easy schedule.
The Rams had the toughest schedule of any team in the NFL. This was mostly because of their difficult division. The Bears had a relatively weak schedule, ranking twenty-sixth. In the AFC, the Texans had the fourth toughest schedule and the Jaguars the tenth toughest schedule. This was mostly because their division played the NFC West division. The Patriots had the weakest schedule in the NFL. The Broncos, Bills, and Chargers had weak schedules.
Super Bowl Odds
Super Bowl odds are a useful indicator of the teams that people believe are most likely to win the Super Bowl. They are willing to support their decisions by risking money. Below are the Super Bowl odds for all 14 teams.
Source: Odds Checker accessed 07/01/2025
The Seahawks are slight favourites over the Rams. The Broncos are not far behind. The Eagles, Bills, and Patriots have roughly the same odds. Then it is the Texans and Jaguars. The Packers, Bears, 49ers, and Chargers are considered to have slim chances. The Steelers have very slim odds, and the Panthers are basically given no chance at all. These are likely to change after the Wild Card Round.
More Than Just Being Good
Super Bowl winners are always going to be good teams, but they are not necessarily going to be the best teams. There are other factors at play. Some of these include:
- The entertainment value the teams offer
- The matchups and the storylines
- Unpredictability and potential for surprises
- Most profitable for gambling
- Politics and messaging
Offences are normally more interesting than defences. High-scoring games are often preferred over low-scoring games. However, the most preferred are close games, which are determined in the final quarter or even minutes of the game. Games are also more entertaining based on the star power of the players. Almost every Super Bowl over the past few decades has featured a star quarterback.
Big games often have interesting storylines. In 2025, it was about the Chiefs attempting to be the first NFL team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls and the Eagles, who gave them the first win in this streak two years prior. In 2024, it was the Super Bowl 54 rematch and the Taylor Swift theme. In 2023, it was the Kelce brothers. In 2022, it was the L.A. Rams and the Hollywood Super Bowl. In 2021, it was the old G.O.A.T., Tom Brady, against the future G.O.A.T., Patrick Mahomes. This year, there is likely to be a storyline. It is also possible that it will be building towards something for next season.
Unpredictability is good. The NFL wants to keep the fans guessing. This is good for entertainment and gambling. This season has been one of the tightest among the top teams. For example, if the 49ers had beaten the Seahawks, they would have had the first seed instead of the sixth seed. The non-division winners could be as strong as the division winners. The top seeds in both conferences have limited playoff experience. This makes the outcomes even more unpredictable.
Gambling is a huge part of the NFL. I would expect results to go in a way that favours the house. This might not necessarily be about just results, but it could be about individual player performances and who scores first or the most points.
The NFL, like most sports, is political. We have seen this with Black Lives Matter as well as the wars in the early 2000s. It is quite possible there will be political themes relating to domestic politics or even foreign policy.
Super Bowl 60 is being held in Santa Clara, California. This location is significant; there has been considerable movement in the west coast teams. The Rams moved to LA in 2016, and the Chargers moved there in 2017. The Raiders moved to Las Vegas in 2020. These teams moved to cities that have the potential for larger fan bases. LA is the second largest city in the US but went decades without a team. Fans are not going to gravitate immediately to the recently arrived teams.
The Rams had a recent boost from LA hosting the Super Bowl in 2022 and then the team going on to win it in their home stadium. The Chargers have yet to receive such a boost. A Super Bowl in California could boost the popularity of all the Californian teams, especially the 49ers for hosting, and any of the other West Coast teams that could reach the Super Bowl. This season, the West Coast teams won more regular season games than ever before.
My Super Bowl Predictions
Source: nfl.com
The playoffs could pan out in many different ways. Arguably, this is important for gambling. I do not have much confidence in any one prediction. I am confident that at least one West Coast team will reach the Super Bowl.
First Prediction
In my Super Bowl post last year, I made a very early prediction that the Chargers would play the 49ers in this year's Super Bowl. This prediction is still possible.
The Chargers have only been to the Super Bowl once. That was in 1995 and against the 49ers. The 49ers won that game 49-26. That was also the last time the 49ers won a Super Bowl. This would make an interesting rematch.
The Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh was the 49ers coach when the 49ers lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens. Chargers linebackers coach NaVorro Bowman was also on that 49ers team. This would be a great reunion with their old teams and in the stadium that was built during their tenure with the 49ers.
The 49ers have been a dominant team for around half a decade. They have been to four NFC championship games and two Super Bowls in the past six years. Many of the 49ers’ star players, possibly future Hall of Famers, such as George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Fred Warner (injured but could return for the Super Bowl), Trent Williams, and Kyle Juszczyk, are at the end of their peak. This might be their last chance of a Super Bowl run.
What works against this Super Bowl matchup is that neither team is the strongest in their conference. Both records and statistics indicate this. Both teams have a very difficult path to the Super Bowl. The Chargers are the seventh seed in the AFC, and the 49ers are the sixth seed in the NFC. They will probably need to win three road games in a row.
Second Prediction
My second prediction is the Bills versus the Rams. Both these teams have exciting offences and top-tier quarterbacks. Both Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and Bills quarterback Josh Allen are contenders for season MVP.
This matchup also involves the West Coast team, the Rams, and an East Coast team, the Bills. Having teams from both coasts could attract more interest from a broader base of fans. The Bills have been a competitive team for many seasons but have fallen short. This has often been because the Chiefs, who did not reach the playoffs this season, have eliminated them. This could be their year.
Both the Bills and Rams can make a case for being the best teams in their conference. However, both teams could have a difficult path to the Super Bowl, as neither team won their division.
Third Prediction
My third prediction involves the Rams again. They are arguably the strongest and most exciting West Coast team. This time, I predict they could face the Texans. The Texans have one of the strongest defences in the NFL. This is true in terms of points, yards, and turnovers. They are also the most in-form team in the league. They have won nine games in a row. They have also played the fourth toughest schedule. We could argue they are the strongest team in the AFC.
The Rams and the Texans played each other in week one of the season. The Rams narrowly won in a low-scoring game. The Texans went on to lose the next two games. They were arguably in their worst form for the season. A rematch would be intriguing for many fans. The Texans have made their third playoffs in a row. The return to the playoffs has come with the arrival of quarterback CJ Stroud.
Fourth Prediction
For my fourth and final prediction, I am going with the Seahawks against the Patriots. Of the division winners, I believe the Seahawks have the best chance of making the Super Bowl. They have a very good team. They may have the best defence and special teams in the league. They have one of the better offences. They only need to win two home games to reach the Super Bowl. According to Las Vegas, they are the current favourite to win the Super Bowl. They are a West Coast team as well.
The Seahawks lack a top-tier quarterback. Therefore, they will need to play a team with a top-tier or at least an exciting quarterback with a high scoring offence. That limits it to the Bills and the Patriots. The Patriots were the team of both the 2000s and 2010s. They have a large fan base, and they are located on the East Coast. Therefore creating an East Coast-West Coast matchup. The Patriots have also played the Seahawks in the Super Bowl before. This could be a revenge matchup for the Seahawks. The same argument could be made if they were to play the Rams.
This version of the Patriots is new to the Super Bowl, and their players are not as well-known as many other teams. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is in the running to be season MVP and is arguably elite. However, he has never played in the playoffs before. The Patriots played very few playoff-calibre opponents. They won one of the two games against division rivals, the Bills, and lost to the Steelers.
Conclusion
The NFL playoffs are hard to predict, which is good. This season is one of the most difficult ones to predict. This can be argued for both conferences. None of the teams have been consistently dominant. There are no dynasty-type teams like the Chiefs. It is highly unlikely that any team will challenge the Chiefs as the team of the decade.
These are my predictions for this year. I have given myself much better chances of being correct this time. However, this is technically still slim since I made four predictions out of a possible forty-nine. We will just have to see what happens. I hope everyone enjoyed this analysis and predictions. Have a happy new year!
The Sapien Loop Series
I am writing a trilogy of books titled Sapien Loop. The first in the series is Sapien Loop: End of an Era and the second is Sapien Loop: Frozen in Time. I published both of these books as ebooks on Amazon, and I have posted completed chapters to my 
Brief Summary of Sapien Loop: End of an Era
This story is based on the fictional planet Sapia and its sole country, Sapey. Sapey is portrayed as a form of utopia for all its citizens. No poverty. No war. Almost no crime. Opportunities for all.
This was enough for most citizens, but not all. In one of the small regions, some of the citizens had become discontent. They felt something important was missing in their lives. Their discontent did not go unnoticed. Some of the Sapey elite wanted to weaponise this discontent to gain more power. This created more chaos than they anticipated. This led to further widespread social unrest.
On top of the chaos, ambition and greed provoked another enemy. This enemy was on a mission to settle both new and old scores.
Brief Summary of Sapien Loop: Frozen in Time
This story is based six years after the original story. The Downs Region is still suffering from a serious health crisis caused by the contaminated water. The main characters are desperately trying to find a cure for the illness that has been caused by the water.
One of the main characters has discovered frozen humanoids in hidden chambers. It appears they have been frozen for a long time. These chambers connect to a vast network of tunnels. While exploring the tunnels, one of the frozen humanoids disappears. It appears he has been stolen.
The story takes a step back in time to tell the story of the frozen humanoids. How and why were they frozen? This part of the story also explains the fall of ancient Sapey and the birth of the Sapiens. Can those from the past be able to coexist with those from the present?
