What is a "Black Swan Event"?
A black swan event is an incident that occurs randomly and unexpectedly and has wide-spread ramifications. The event is usually followed with reflection and a flawed rationalization that it was inevitable.
The phrase illustrates the frailty of inductive reasoning and the danger of making sweeping generalizations from limited observations.
For example, if a man saw a thousand swans and they were all white, he might logically conclude that all swans are white. The flaw in his logic is that even when the premises are true, the conclusion can still be false.
In other words, just because the man has never seen a black swan, it does not mean they do not exist.
As Dutch explorers discovered in 1697, black swans are simply outliers -- rare birds, unknown to Europeans until Willem de Vlamingh and his crew visited Australia.
Black Swan (or "Holy $hit! Never saw this one coming...")
Anne was full of surprises.
Unlike most of the Filipinas I had dated before, she was neither clingy, nor prone to overdrama.
In fact, she possessed the same penchant for playful fun and strange humor that is considered trademark JaiChai.
We had met a couple months back while I was in Cebu.
And after a couple of hedonistic nights together, we exchanged contact information and went on our separate ways; both of us assuming that we'd probably never see each other again.
But Anne surprised me yet again a couple of days ago.
That morning, she text me with: "In town for biz. Miz ur craziness; & of course, your bod too!"
I replied with: Ditto. You got time for me? Say, about 4 and a half hours' worth? Lol!"
Anne: "Meet me at the Southview Hotel ~ 8pm'ish, ok? Rm # 201. U better be rested 'coz I REALLY MIZ U!"
Me: "Count on it. Lookin' forward to see just how much you REALLY MISS me!"
Needless to say, she REALLY MISSED ME and I must've really missed her too 'cause the next thing I knew, we'd been at it like "Sexual Borg" for hours!
At 2:00am, Anne asked me to go get another bucket of ice.
Obediently, I did what she asked. I wrapped a towel around my waist, slipped into the hallway and quietly made my way to the ice machine around the corner.
On my way, I laughed out loud when I remembered Anne saying, "You've been a very bad boy. Go to my cabin!"
But then it happened.
The Black Swan event...
Carrying the bucket of ice in one hand, I unlocked the room with the other, flung the hotel room door open and in my best butler tone, stoically stated, "Your ice, Madam! I continue to be at your service."
My grand announcement fell on an empty hotel room.
Anne and her luggage were gone. All my stuff was still on the floor where I had hastily dumped it many hours ago.
After a few moments of total confusion and shock, I buzzed the front desk.
The hotel staff on duty told me that she had paid for the room and left in a taxi just minutes ago. "Nobody knew where she was headed..."
Five minutes later, I got a text from Anne: "I think I luv u, but I guez I'll never know 4 sure. Getting married today. Hope u nevr change & find some1 hu really dezerve you."
Damn! I never would've seen that one coming...
At least she could've thrown some spare change on the pillow, no?
"Oh the humanity! I feel like such an object...."
By JaiChai
