The Northern Sea Route is 30-40% shorter than the current shipping routes and why it is seen as strategically important to Russia.
I haven't done an update on the goings on with the Northern Sea Route for sometime and I thought I would take a quick look today. The Russians as we all know have been very protective and possessive over their sea route even if it is inaccessible for many months of the year due to heavy pack ice.
The talk of global warming hasn't really materialized with the Russian's betting they could open up this Northerly sea route 365 days a year. It is true some of the pack ice became thinner, but in the Eastern part of the route the ice has actually got thicker. This funny enough is the very important sector as that is where many of the natural resources lay beneath the ice.
We knew the Russians had planned to build 3 monster nuclear ice breakers and then cancelled 2 o them due to budgetary concerns. The one that was planned for 2027 is now again on hold and this is where the Karma part has hit hard. The factory supplying key components for the vessel was based in the Ukraine and has been bombed destroyed. Many now don't believe the vessel will ever be built which leaves Russia firmly on the back foot.
8The steel plant was known to manufacture high end big pieces of machinery which Putin required for his ice breakers. Below is an example of the type of equipment they built here. What is also rather ironic is the factory is part Russian owned (Rosatom) as they made specialist parts for Nuclear Power plants besides shipping. Rosatom is also the owner of the Northern Sea Route Nuclear ice breaking fleet.*
In the meantime not only has China been building an ice breaking fleet, but Turkey has as well and are the only countries who are now capable of accessing the Northern Sea Route. Russia firstly does not have the funds to contemplate matching what China or Turkey have along with the time required so Russia will now need to negotiate their position. This is a total 360 degree change of where they were 2 years ago telling China to back off as the NSR was Russian controlled.
Turkey and China have a leverage over the Russians now which will no doubt lead to some special concessions working together. China was always after control of this sea route and have been biding their time. Without Turkey and China Russia cannot access their natural resources like oil and gas deep under the ice on the ocean floor which has always been Putin's objective.
Long term I can see the Chinese taking control of this route and Chinese shipping companies like Costco will be expected to access this route to Europe. The Russians only have themselves to blame for this mess as taking on Ukraine in a war that was not expected to last this long. Russia is trying to negotiate a deal with India to use the route to help offset China's dominance and kind of shows how desperate they are as India are closer to Europe than going around the NSR would be longer.
Fascinating to see how things continue to evolve and change and this must be Putin's worst nightmare coming true. I will continue doing updates as this is of huge importance for the trade routes.